Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2672 GP	H242 GP	H130 GP	Prev 3193 GP · 3y
TOI	18.50	18.71	17.62	17.21	17.00
PP TOI	1.80	1.82	1.71	1.98	1.79
G	24	26	18	37	21
A	26	26	26	26	21
PTS	50	52	45	63	42
PPP	6	6	8	3	7
SOG	174	179	176	183	168
PIM	34	48	50	45	25
Hits	96	107	111	102	78
Blocks	61	57	66	44	55

Sample: 72 GP · 962 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

59Frank Nazar35

60Mikael Granlund34

61Dmitri Voronkov33

62Shane Pinto32

63Matt Duchene29

64Elias Lindholm27

65Mason McTavish27

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 85% below where it started (19.48 in the first half, 2.85 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

Blks/60

Blks/60 finished the year 73% above where it started (1.63 in the first half, 2.82 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Above his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 67% above his 3-year rate last season (0.62 against 0.37).

We project it down

PIM

all5v5

We’re projecting penalty minutes 29% below last season, 48 to 34.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Tyson FoersterLW · Philadelphia Flyers88% match
shared: Blocks, Hits
Boone JennerC,LW · Washington Capitals87% match
shared: Blocks, Hits
Blake ColemanLW,RW · Minnesota Wild85% match
shared: Blocks, Hits, G
Adam FantilliC · Columbus Blue Jackets84% match
shared: Blocks, Hits

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Shane Pinto is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Mats ZuccarelloRW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 2
fills: PPP, A
Ivan DemidovRW · Montreal Canadienscovers 2
fills: A, PPP
Robert ThomasC · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: A, PPP
Mitch MarnerC,LW,RW · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 2
fills: A, PPP

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Travis Green (OTT)

Last year: Travis Green full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	18.50	18.71	17.00	+10%
5v5 TOI	13.44	13.37	13.38	-0%
PP TOI	1.80	1.82	1.79	+1%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 10 · 22 · 20

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 18.50: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 13.44: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 1.80: holds last year's role

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.61	6.61	6.32	+5%
G/60	0.73	0.75	0.67	+11%
iSH%	11.09	11.35	10.67	+6%
ixG/60	–	0.92	0.81	+14%
iCF/60	–	13.47	11.69	+15%
iSCF/60	–	7.92	7.81	+1%
iHDCF/60	–	4.24	3.79	+12%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 10 · 22 · 20

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.92 (88th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.81 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.96	10.62	7.32	+45%
IPP	65.59	66.06	62.93	+5%
1A/60	0.53	0.62	0.37	+67%
2A/60	0.38	0.44	0.37	+18%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 10 · 22 · 20

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 10.6% vs a 7.3% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 13.47 vs 11.69) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 4.24 vs 3.79) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.80	1.82	1.79	+1%
PP iSH%	13.59	18.51	12.20	+52%
PP SOG/60	12.85	12.37	14.20	-13%
PP ixG/60	–	2.34	2.55	-8%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 10 · 22 · 20

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~1.8 PP TOI/gp.

RiskPP finishing ran hot (18.5% vs 12.2% 3-yr) with flat PP chances (PP ixG/60 2.34) — expect PP goals to cool.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.68	2.00	1.25	+60%
Hits/60	4.77	5.24	4.07	+29%
Blks/60	2.50	2.37	2.53	-6%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 10 · 22 · 20

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 5.24/60 (62nd pct league-wide) → 4.77 projected.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 2.71/60 and 2nd-half 2.82 vs a 2.37 season rate (2.53 3-yr) (45th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.50/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.