Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2666 GP	H233 GP	H133 GP	Prev 353 GP · 1y
TOI	18.61	18.32	17.94	16.94	15.87
PP TOI	3.37	3.15	3.51	2.79	1.33
G	▲23	19	24	14	19
A	▲30	32	26	39	22
PTS	▲53	51	50	52	40
PPP	▲15	15	15	15	6
SOG	178	172	183	160	141
PIM	32	32	15	50	37
Hits	48	46	46	46	46
Blocks	53	53	46	61	54

Sample: 66 GP · 869 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

56Logan Cooley40

57Mark Kastelic39

58Anton Lundell38

59Frank Nazar35

60Mikael Granlund34

61Dmitri Voronkov33

62Shane Pinto32

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): PPTOI climbing but PPP flat/down is the rate hedge on a one-year PP1 sample: the engine averages his real 2025-26 PP rate against a near-zero rookie year. Modest assist lift for the genuinely leveled-up, H2-sustained role, hedged for an uneven finish on a weak team. Goals lifted 2026-07-27: he shot below his ixG-implied rate at even strength (10.4 vs 12.7) AND on the power play (10.8 vs 18.2) in the same season, which is a finishing deficit rather than a skill read, and he inherits 1C minutes for roughly the first month while Bedard recovers from shoulder surgery. Lands ~55.

Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)

TailwindSupport Bedard/Nazar baselines; discount speculative Chicago streamers. · Coaching landscape report

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Above his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 136% above his 3-year rate last season (3.15 against 1.33).

Second-half surge

all5v5

Goals ran at a 24 pace in the second half after 14 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

PP ixG/60

PP ixG/60 ran 84% above his 3-year rate last season (1.95 against 1.06).

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 57% above where it started (8.34 in the first half, 13.12 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Anthony CirelliC · Tampa Bay Lightning88% match
shared: Blocks
Jordan EberleRW · Seattle Kraken88% match
Connor McMichaelC,LW · St. Louis Blues88% match
shared: Blocks
Morgan FrostC · Calgary Flames87% match
shared: Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Frank Nazar is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jacob MelansonRW · Seattle Krakencovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jeff Blashill (CHI)

Last year: Jeff Blashill full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	18.61	18.32	15.87	+15%
5v5 TOI	13.44	13.17	12.79	+3%
PP TOI	3.37	3.15	1.33	+136%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 15 · 14 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 18.61: holds last year's role; age 22 riser — small growth bias
5v5 TOI → 13.44: holds last year's role; age 22 riser — small growth bias
PP TOI → 3.37: same coach (Jeff Blashill) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 3.5, Q4 3.5) over the full-year 3.1; age 22 riser — small growth bias

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.40	6.21	6.02	+3%
G/60	0.63	0.69	0.53	+30%
iSH%	9.77	11.11	8.80	+26%
ixG/60	–	0.76	0.78	-3%
iCF/60	–	12.08	11.95	+1%
iSCF/60	–	7.25	8.06	-10%
iHDCF/60	–	3.31	3.81	-13%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 15 · 14 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 11.1% vs a 8.8% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.76 (70th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 9.8% pulls the goal rate ~9% down.

TailwindAge 22 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.32	10.55	9.83	+7%
IPP	70.32	74.70	64.25	+16%
1A/60	0.62	0.69	0.53	+30%
2A/60	0.40	0.48	0.35	+37%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 15 · 14 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskIPP spiked to 74.7% vs 64.3% 3-yr — point participation this far above baseline rarely holds; assist share likely gives a little back.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.37	3.15	1.33	+136%
PP iSH%	10.98	10.77	11.13	-3%
PP SOG/60	10.94	10.68	7.64	+40%
PP ixG/60	–	1.95	1.06	+84%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 15 · 14 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~3.4 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 1.95 vs 1.06) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.26	1.38	1.95	-29%
Hits/60	2.25	2.21	2.30	-4%
Blks/60	2.47	2.62	2.74	-4%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 15 · 14 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 2.21/60 (27th pct league-wide) → 2.25 projected.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.71/60 and 2nd-half 2.25 below the 2.62 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.47/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.74 3-yr mark.