Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2680 GP	H241 GP	H139 GP	Prev 3202 GP · 3y
TOI	17.91	18.48	16.71	17.73	16.89
PP TOI	2.46	2.68	2.46	2.91	2.53
G	22	27	24	29	19
A	29	30	33	26	35
PTS	51	57	57	56	54
PPP	13	16	10	23	13
SOG	161	172	149	196	167
PIM	27	29	28	30	26
Hits	44	56	48	65	35
Blocks	37	44	45	43	28

Sample: 80 GP · 1,156 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingRight wing · league-wide (of 273)

99Tyler Toffoli18

100Mackie Samoskevich17

101Zachary L'Heureux16

102Jordan Eberle16

103Jack Quinn16

104Tyler Seguin15

105Cole Perfetti13

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

PPP

Power play points ran at a 10 pace in the second half after 23 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

PP ixG/60

PP ixG/60 ran 83% above his 3-year rate last season (2.79 against 1.52).

Above his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 60% above his 3-year rate last season (2.75 against 1.72).

Second-half surge

all5v5

Assists ran at a 33 pace in the second half after 26 in the first, per 82 games.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Pavel BuchnevichC,LW,RW · St. Louis Blues93% match
Frank NazarC,RW · Chicago Blackhawks88% match
Logan CooleyC · Utah Mammoth87% match
Connor McMichaelC,LW · St. Louis Blues87% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Jordan Eberle is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Lane Lambert (SEA)

Last year: Lane Lambert full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	17.91	18.48	16.89	+9%
5v5 TOI	14.09	14.46	13.52	+7%
PP TOI	2.46	2.68	2.53	+6%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 21 · 20

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 17.91: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 14.09: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 2.46: role tapered late (Q4 2.0 vs 2.7 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.60	5.86	7.38	-21%
G/60	0.63	0.83	0.68	+21%
iSH%	11.32	14.16	9.26	+53%
ixG/60	–	0.72	0.75	-4%
iCF/60	–	11.31	13.31	-15%
iSCF/60	–	6.43	8.04	-20%
iHDCF/60	–	3.37	3.45	-2%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 21 · 20

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 14.2% vs a 9.3% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.72 (64th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 11.3% pulls the goal rate ~24% down.

RiskShot volume down 21% (5v5 SOG/60 5.86 vs 7.38) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

RiskAge 36 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.04	9.85	10.26	-4%
IPP	64.26	65.35	62.92	+4%
1A/60	0.73	0.57	0.97	-41%
2A/60	0.23	0.26	0.29	-9%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 21 · 20

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 9.9%, IPP 65.4%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.46	2.68	2.53	+6%
PP iSH%	14.92	10.01	18.48	-46%
PP SOG/60	9.82	11.19	6.34	+77%
PP ixG/60	–	2.79	1.52	+83%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 21 · 20

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 2.7→2.5 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 2.0 vs 2.7 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP finishing ran cold (10.0% vs 18.5%) over steady PP chances — PP goals should rebound.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.22	1.24	1.34	-8%
Hits/60	2.23	2.75	1.72	+60%
Blks/60	1.85	2.13	1.43	+49%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 21 · 20

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 2.62/60 and 2nd-half 2.37 below the 2.75 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.23/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.72 3-yr mark.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 2.13/60 (36th pct league-wide) → 1.85 projected.