Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2682 GP	H242 GP	H140 GP	Prev 3176 GP · 3y
TOI	15.63	15.66	15.13	15.13	14.55
PP TOI	2.20	2.25	2.35	2.14	1.93
G	21	20	23	16	18
A	32	31	31	31	27
PTS	53	51	55	47	44
PPP	13	11	18	4	10
SOG	176	191	224	157	142
PIM	18	18	18	18	19
Hits	62	52	59	44	53
Blocks	22	25	12	39	25

Sample: 82 GP · 1,045 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingRight wing · league-wide (of 273)

100Mackie Samoskevich17

101Zachary L'Heureux16

102Jordan Eberle16

103Jack Quinn16

104Tyler Seguin15

105Cole Perfetti13

106Josh Anderson13

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Hedged further down — PP1 runway is as likely Benson/Doan; no goal/assist premium.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

BLK

all5v5

Blocks ran at a 12 pace in the second half after 39 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 79% above his 3-year rate last season (0.98 against 0.55).

Second-half surge

all5v5

Goals ran at a 23 pace in the second half after 16 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it up

PPP

We’re projecting power play points 18% above last season, 11 to 13.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Anton FrondellC · Chicago Blackhawks90% match
Tyler SeguinC,RW · Dallas Stars87% match
Luke EvangelistaRW · Nashville Predators86% match
Josh DoanLW,RW · Buffalo Sabres85% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Jack Quinn is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Curtis DouglasC,RW · Seattle Krakencovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Lindy Ruff (BUF)

Last year: Lindy Ruff full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	15.63	15.66	14.55	+8%
5v5 TOI	12.61	12.75	11.78	+8%
PP TOI	2.20	2.25	1.93	+16%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 24 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 15.63: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 12.61: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 2.20: HEDGE (2nd cut): Benson & Doan got the bigger PP looks in the playoffs without Tuch, not Quinn. PP toward his real 2.25, no PP1 premium.

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	8.49	8.38	6.54	+28%
G/60	0.96	0.80	0.93	-14%
iSH%	11.31	9.55	14.18	-33%
ixG/60	–	0.82	0.71	+15%
iCF/60	–	16.41	14.38	+14%
iSCF/60	–	9.18	8.07	+14%
iHDCF/60	–	3.16	2.66	+19%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 24 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindNudge up on improving process plus possible PP1 opening. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 9.5% vs 14.2% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 0.82 (78th pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 11.3%, lifting the goal rate ~20%.

TailwindShot volume up 28% (5v5 SOG/60 8.38 vs 6.54) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	11.33	11.45	10.53	+9%
IPP	65.83	65.51	67.91	-4%
1A/60	0.77	0.98	0.55	+79%
2A/60	0.44	0.29	0.55	-47%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 24 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 11.4%, IPP 65.5%).

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 16.41 vs 14.38) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 3.16 vs 2.66) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.20	2.25	1.93	+16%
PP iSH%	8.30	10.50	7.68	+37%
PP SOG/60	12.64	12.38	11.48	+8%
PP ixG/60	–	1.54	1.63	-5%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 24 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindNudge up on improving process plus possible PP1 opening. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

ContextPP role steady at ~2.2 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.91	0.92	0.90	+2%
Hits/60	3.53	2.93	2.95	-1%
Blks/60	1.17	1.38	1.39	-1%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 24 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 4.53/60 and 2nd-half 3.54 vs a 2.93 season rate (2.95 3-yr) (37th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 3.53/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.07/60 and 2nd-half 0.73 below the 1.38 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.17/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.39 3-yr mark.