Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2681 GP	H241 GP	H140 GP	Prev 3172 GP · 3y
TOI	16.56	16.62	16.23	15.74	14.29
PP TOI	1.90	2.16	1.97	2.36	1.97
G	15	12	10	14	16
A	35	45	42	47	25
PTS	50	57	52	61	41
PPP	10	17	12	23	8
SOG	182	178	167	189	172
PIM	37	28	40	16	22
Hits	29	21	28	14	32
Blocks	23	21	23	19	20

Sample: 81 GP · 1,118 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingRight wing · league-wide (of 273)

107Curtis Douglas13

108Matvei Gridin11

109Martin Pospisil10

110Luke Evangelista10

111Garnet Hathaway8

112Logan Stankoven7

113Oliver Bjorkstrand6

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)

TailwindSmall positive nudge; deeper-league value. · Corey Sznajder (All Three Zones)

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PIMs/60

PIMs/60 finished the year 128% above where it started (0.94 in the first half, 2.15 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half fade

PPP

Power play points ran at a 12 pace in the second half after 23 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 41% below his 3-year rate last season (1.13 against 1.93).

We project it down

all5v5

We’re projecting assists 22% below last season, 45 to 35.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Jack QuinnRW · Buffalo Sabres86% match
Will SmithC,RW · San Jose Sharks86% match
shared: A
Anton FrondellC · Chicago Blackhawks85% match
Matt CoronatoRW · Calgary Flames84% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Luke Evangelista is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Liam O'BrienLW · Utah Mammothcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jacob MelansonRW · Seattle Krakencovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Andrew Brunette (NSH)

Last year: Andrew Brunette full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	16.56	16.62	14.29	+16%
5v5 TOI	13.98	13.81	11.93	+16%
PP TOI	1.90	2.16	1.97	+10%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 22 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 16.56: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 13.98: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 1.90: role tapered late (Q4 1.5 vs 2.2 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	7.13	7.13	8.39	-15%
G/60	0.52	0.48	0.70	-31%
iSH%	7.35	6.73	8.35	-19%
ixG/60	–	0.80	0.77	+4%
iCF/60	–	13.14	13.16	-0%
iSCF/60	–	6.97	7.66	-9%
iHDCF/60	–	3.16	3.71	-15%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 22 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 6.7% vs 8.3% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 0.80 (76th pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 7.3%, lifting the goal rate ~9%.

RiskShot volume down 15% (5v5 SOG/60 7.13 vs 8.39) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.64	9.03	7.92	+14%
IPP	66.19	63.44	71.31	-11%
1A/60	0.87	0.97	0.79	+22%
2A/60	0.41	0.32	0.32	-1%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 22 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPositive finishing regression plus role bump; raise assist/point baseline. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 9.0%, IPP 63.4%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.90	2.16	1.97	+10%
PP iSH%	6.16	3.55	6.90	-49%
PP SOG/60	9.72	9.58	10.28	-7%
PP ixG/60	–	1.39	1.67	-17%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 22 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 2.2→1.9 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 1.5 vs 2.2 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.03	1.50	1.17	+28%
Hits/60	1.53	1.13	1.93	-41%
Blks/60	1.06	0.97	1.20	-19%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 22 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 2.26/60 and 2nd-half 1.50 vs a 1.13 season rate (1.93 3-yr) (10th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 1.53/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBottom-of-league blocks (3rd pct) — no meaningful floor here, don't draft for it.