Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2680 GP	H240 GP	H140 GP	Prev 3111 GP · 2y
TOI	16.96	16.64	15.71	15.96	16.06
PP TOI	2.67	2.78	2.26	3.30	2.22
G	▲24	18	13	23	20
A	▲30	28	26	30	21
PTS	▲54	46	39	53	41
PPP	16	15	14	16	13
SOG	205	203	201	205	176
PIM	36	33	33	33	21
Hits	33	24	30	17	32
Blocks	26	24	21	27	33

Sample: 80 GP · 1,042 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingRight wing · league-wide (of 273)

73Valeri Nichushkin38

74Brock Boeser36

75Frank Nazar35

76Matt Coronato34

77Matvei Michkov34

78Mikael Granlund34

79Troy Terry34

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Held modest — Calgary is a league-worst team-SH% environment (no blanket boost).

Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)

TailwindPositive finishing regression; project a step to ~55 points. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

all5v5

Goals ran at a 13 pace in the second half after 23 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

PP TOI

PP TOI finished the year 31% below where it started (3.28 in the first half, 2.25 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Above his 3-year rate

ixG/60

ixG/60 ran 27% above his 3-year rate last season (0.84 against 0.66).

Below his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 27% below his 3-year rate last season (1.27 against 1.73).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

JJ PeterkaLW,RW · Boston Bruins89% match
Viktor ArvidssonLW,RW · Detroit Red Wings88% match
shared: SOG
Anton FrondellC · Chicago Blackhawks87% match
shared: SOG
Jackson BlakeRW · Carolina Hurricanes86% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Matt Coronato is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Garnet HathawayRW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Ryan Huska (CGY)

Last year: Ryan Huska full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	16.96	16.64	16.06	+4%
5v5 TOI	13.61	13.03	13.14	-1%
PP TOI	2.67	2.78	2.22	+25%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 21 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 16.96: holds last year's role; age 23 riser — small growth bias
5v5 TOI → 13.61: holds last year's role; age 23 riser — small growth bias
PP TOI → 2.67: young PP support arriving (Parekh) — a modest PP-minutes bump rather than a blind PPP cut

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	9.01	8.75	7.90	+11%
G/60	0.68	0.58	0.70	-18%
iSH%	7.49	6.63	8.90	-26%
ixG/60	–	0.84	0.66	+27%
iCF/60	–	17.85	15.76	+13%
iSCF/60	–	8.75	7.65	+14%
iHDCF/60	–	3.34	2.27	+47%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 21 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindRaise goal/point ceiling on elite rush generation plus PP support. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

ContextHold the shot-based goal boost modest; do not project a full breakout given weak linemates. · Corey Sznajder (All Three Zones)

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 6.6% vs 8.9% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 0.84 (80th pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 7.5%, lifting the goal rate ~16%.

TailwindShot volume up 11% (5v5 SOG/60 8.75 vs 7.90) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

TailwindAge 23 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	7.05	7.00	7.25	-3%
IPP	69.74	74.26	57.54	+29%
1A/60	0.39	0.35	0.46	-23%
2A/60	0.28	0.58	0.13	+352%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 21 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskIPP spiked to 74.3% vs 57.5% 3-yr — point participation this far above baseline rarely holds; assist share likely gives a little back.

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 17.85 vs 15.76) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 3.34 vs 2.27) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.58 vs 3-yr 0.13) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.67	2.78	2.22	+25%
PP iSH%	15.70	16.65	15.02	+11%
PP SOG/60	11.21	11.35	9.74	+17%
PP ixG/60	–	2.15	1.80	+19%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 21 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~2.7 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 2.15 vs 1.80) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.52	1.27	1.11	+14%
Hits/60	1.70	1.27	1.73	-27%
Blks/60	1.15	1.21	1.65	-27%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 21 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 2.32/60 and 2nd-half 1.59 vs a 1.27 season rate (1.73 3-yr) (12th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 1.70/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 0.46/60 and 2nd-half 0.98 below the 1.21 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.15/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.65 3-yr mark.