Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2661 GP	H220 GP	H141 GP	Prev 3223 GP · 3y
TOI	18.42	18.35	17.50	17.22	18.82
PP TOI	3.15	3.19	3.08	3.25	2.69
G	23	26	26	26	24
A	44	51	50	52	39
PTS	67	77	76	77	63
PPP	17	16	20	14	13
SOG	202	216	254	198	202
PIM	21	19	17	20	24
Hits	5	3	8	0	13
Blocks	26	22	16	24	29

Sample: 61 GP · 804 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingRight wing · league-wide (of 273)

76Matt Coronato34

77Matvei Michkov34

78Mikael Granlund34

79Troy Terry34

80Jonathan Marchessault33

81Josh Doan30

82Matt Duchene29

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Injured but kept in the projected top-6 and on PP1. PP TOI ~3.15 (playoff 3rd-in-line).

Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)

TailwindHold the ascending elite line; apply a small early-season tempering while Terry is out. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 67% below where it started (12.58 in the first half, 4.15 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

PP SOG/60

PP SOG/60 finished the year 64% above where it started (7.11 in the first half, 11.66 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Above his 3-year rate

ixG/60

ixG/60 ran 27% above his 3-year rate last season (0.90 against 0.71).

Above his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 19% above his 3-year rate last season (3.19 against 2.69).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Will SmithC,RW · San Jose Sharks87% match
shared: A
Nikolaj EhlersLW,RW · Carolina Hurricanes85% match
shared: A, SOG
Leo CarlssonC · Anaheim Ducks85% match
shared: A
Jordan KyrouRW · Washington Capitals85% match
shared: SOG, A

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Troy Terry is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Liam O'BrienLW · Utah Mammothcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Joel Quenneville (ANA)

Last year: Joel Quenneville full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	18.42	18.35	18.82	-3%
5v5 TOI	13.53	13.19	14.76	-11%
PP TOI	3.15	3.19	2.69	+19%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 5 · 15

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 18.42: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 13.53: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 3.15: PP1 lock — ran 3rd in playoff PP TOI (2:44). Slight trim from the engine's 3.19. (Injured to start; role held on the projected top unit.)

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	7.68	7.68	6.74	+14%
G/60	0.81	0.82	0.69	+18%
iSH%	10.53	10.68	10.28	+4%
ixG/60	–	0.90	0.71	+27%
iCF/60	–	15.44	13.27	+16%
iSCF/60	–	8.35	7.42	+13%
iHDCF/60	–	4.25	2.97	+43%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 5 · 15

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindDiscount Terry's games/availability; nudge Gauthier's early-season role up. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.90 (86th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.71 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindShot volume up 14% (5v5 SOG/60 7.68 vs 6.74) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.03	10.36	8.82	+17%
IPP	69.61	68.75	74.07	-7%
1A/60	0.68	0.75	0.67	+11%
2A/60	0.64	0.75	0.56	+33%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 5 · 15

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 10.4%, IPP 68.8%).

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 15.44 vs 13.27) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 4.25 vs 2.97) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.75 vs 3-yr 0.56) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.15	3.19	2.69	+19%
PP iSH%	9.47	3.60	11.12	-68%
PP SOG/60	9.71	8.62	11.68	-26%
PP ixG/60	–	1.90	2.01	-5%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 5 · 15

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~3.1 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP finishing ran cold (3.6% vs 11.1%) over steady PP chances — PP goals should rebound.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.97	1.04	0.87	+19%
Hits/60	0.20	0.15	0.56	-73%
Blks/60	0.87	0.89	1.33	-33%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 5 · 15

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 0.58/60 and 2nd-half 0.29 vs a 0.15 season rate (0.56 3-yr) (0th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 0.20/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 0.86/60 and 2nd-half 0.43 below the 0.89 season rate — projected DOWN to 0.87/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.33 3-yr mark.