Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2670 GP	H230 GP	H140 GP	Prev 3131 GP · 2y
TOI	19.48	19.15	18.07	17.72	17.02
PP TOI	3.45	3.46	3.62	3.34	2.37
G	▲37	34	38	31	20
A	▲45	44	41	47	26
PTS	▲82	79	79	78	46
PPP	22	21	16	25	10
SOG	216	226	270	193	140
PIM	39	39	24	50	19
Hits	22	16	18	16	33
Blocks	40	34	40	29	38

Sample: 70 GP · 946 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

21Mika Zibanejad84

22Nico Hischier84

23Sidney Crosby84

24Leo Carlsson82

25Bo Horvat82

26Sam Bennett81

27Joel Eriksson Ek81

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Tempered from the 90-100 ceiling (G1.15/A1.20 -> 1.08/1.10). Raw engine already reads him at ~72 (matches Fantrax); the 90-100 mults over-stacked on top. This keeps a modest #1C/rush-system boost to ~78 without projecting the ceiling. Still 21; early season suppressed while Terry recovers. PP TOI tempered 3.61->3.45 (playoff 4th-in-line).

Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)

TailwindRaise 5v5 floors for Anaheim's young core; minutes must be earned defensively. · Coaching landscape report

TailwindHold the ascending elite line; apply a small early-season tempering while Terry is out. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

1A/60

1A/60 finished the year 109% above where it started (0.45 in the first half, 0.93 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Above his 3-year rate

PP SOG/60

PP SOG/60 ran 73% above his 3-year rate last season (12.38 against 7.16).

Second-half surge

SOG/60

SOG/60 finished the year 54% above where it started (6.45 in the first half, 9.91 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Above his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 46% above his 3-year rate last season (3.46 against 2.37).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Pavel BuchnevichC,LW,RW · St. Louis Blues86% match
shared: A
Jordan EberleRW · Seattle Kraken86% match
Troy TerryRW · Anaheim Ducks85% match
shared: A
Nick SchmaltzC,RW · Utah Mammoth85% match
shared: A, G

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Leo Carlsson is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Liam O'BrienLW · Utah Mammothcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Joel Quenneville (ANA)

Last year: Joel Quenneville full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	19.48	19.15	17.02	+12%
5v5 TOI	13.82	13.52	13.27	+2%
PP TOI	3.45	3.46	2.37	+46%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 11 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 19.48: holds last year's role; age 21 riser — small growth bias
5v5 TOI → 13.82: holds last year's role; age 21 riser — small growth bias
PP TOI → 3.45: Tempered from the engine's 3.61 on playoff PP usage — he ran only 4th in PP TOI (2:40), behind Gauthier and Terry. Small playoff sample and he's the franchise #1C, so a mild trim not a demotion; stays a PP1 lock.

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	8.67	8.05	5.98	+35%
G/60	1.12	1.14	0.66	+74%
iSH%	12.95	14.16	10.97	+29%
ixG/60	–	0.93	0.65	+43%
iCF/60	–	15.28	10.63	+44%
iSCF/60	–	9.45	7.01	+35%
iHDCF/60	–	4.50	3.11	+45%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 11 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindBoost G/SOG; keep assists modest. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.93 (89th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.65 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindShot volume up 35% (5v5 SOG/60 8.05 vs 5.98) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.81→1.03 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

TailwindAge 21 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.72	8.98	7.55	+19%
IPP	68.84	68.75	69.44	-1%
1A/60	0.48	0.57	0.34	+66%
2A/60	0.48	0.38	0.48	-21%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 11 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 9.0% vs a 7.6% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 15.28 vs 10.63) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 4.50 vs 3.11) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.45	3.46	2.37	+46%
PP iSH%	15.88	8.00	21.59	-63%
PP SOG/60	12.21	12.38	7.16	+73%
PP ixG/60	–	1.74	1.18	+48%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 11 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHold an ascending elite-center line with PP1; anchor value regardless of team. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

ContextPP role steady at ~3.5 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP finishing ran cold (8.0% vs 21.6%) over steady PP chances — PP goals should rebound.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.70	0.63	0.90	-30%
Hits/60	1.11	0.82	1.56	-47%
Blks/60	1.81	1.59	1.86	-15%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 11 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskBottom-of-league hits (4th pct) — no meaningful floor here, don't draft for it.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 2.32/60 and 2nd-half 1.77 vs a 1.59 season rate (1.86 3-yr) (19th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 1.81/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.