Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2670 GP	H227 GP	H143 GP	Prev 3201 GP · 3y
TOI	19.16	19.08	16.99	18.40	19.76
PP TOI	3.53	3.56	3.24	3.77	3.51
G	24	22	23	21	27
A	32	38	34	40	35
PTS	56	60	58	61	63
PPP	19	19	18	19	22
SOG	234	227	208	239	267
PIM	47	38	39	37	51
Hits	▼118	124	115	130	151
Blocks	52	40	35	43	56

Sample: 70 GP · 888 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

24Leo Carlsson82

25Bo Horvat82

26Sam Bennett81

27Joel Eriksson Ek81

28Steven Stamkos81

29Dylan Cozens80

30Roope Hintz79

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): His hit rate is the one peripheral where we read high rather than low, above both his own pace and the outside number, so it comes down.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

We project it up

BLK

all5v5

We’re projecting blocks 30% above last season, 40 to 52.

Top of the league

PP TOI

PP TOI sits in the 96th percentile league-wide (3.56).

Second-half surge

PP ixG/60

PP ixG/60 finished the year 32% above where it started (2.93 in the first half, 3.88 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Below his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 32% below his 3-year rate last season (0.41 against 0.61).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Tomas HertlC,LW · Vegas Golden Knights88% match
shared: G, Blocks, Hits, PPP
Filip ForsbergLW · Nashville Predators87% match
shared: SOG, G, Hits, PPP
Tage ThompsonC,RW · Buffalo Sabres87% match
shared: SOG, G, PPP, A
Bo HorvatC · New York Islanders87% match
shared: SOG, G, PPP, Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Joel Eriksson Ek is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Pierre-Luc DuboisC · Washington Capitalscovers 2
fills: PIM, A
Jamie BennLW · Dallas Starscovers 2
fills: PIM, A
Ivan DemidovRW · Montreal Canadienscovers 2
fills: A, PPP
Josh NorrisC · Buffalo Sabrescovers 3
fills: PIM, A, PPP

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · John Hynes (MIN)

Last year: John Hynes full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	19.16	19.08	19.76	-3%
5v5 TOI	12.48	12.70	12.79	-1%
PP TOI	3.53	3.56	3.51	+2%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 15 · 12

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 19.16: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 12.48: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 3.53: established top role held near 3.6 — the late dip (Q4 3.3) reads mostly as rest / season wear, not lost usage

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	7.97	7.97	9.20	-13%
G/60	0.65	0.68	0.70	-3%
iSH%	8.17	8.53	7.59	+12%
ixG/60	–	0.86	0.87	-1%
iCF/60	–	14.92	15.52	-4%
iSCF/60	–	7.56	8.01	-6%
iHDCF/60	–	3.98	4.50	-12%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 15 · 12

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 8.5% sits near the 7.6% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.86 (83rd pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 13% (5v5 SOG/60 7.97 vs 9.20) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.88	11.02	9.11	+21%
IPP	61.47	57.41	66.42	-14%
1A/60	0.44	0.41	0.61	-32%
2A/60	0.57	0.74	0.58	+27%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 15 · 12

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 11.0% vs a 9.1% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.53	3.56	3.51	+2%
PP iSH%	14.97	13.70	15.33	-11%
PP SOG/60	13.03	12.26	16.09	-24%
PP ixG/60	–	3.26	3.73	-13%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 15 · 12

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~3.5 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.06	1.62	1.91	-15%
Hits/60	6.89	6.41	7.44	-14%
Blks/60	1.69	1.49	1.98	-25%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 15 · 12

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 8.46/60 and 2nd-half 6.74 vs a 6.41 season rate (7.44 3-yr) (71st pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 6.89/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 1.49/60 (16th pct league-wide) → 1.69 projected.