Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2682 GP	H243 GP	H139 GP	Prev 3206 GP · 3y
TOI	17.52	17.03	15.67	16.59	18.83
PP TOI	3.36	3.47	3.33	3.62	2.88
G	27	24	19	29	28
A	35	34	34	34	36
PTS	62	58	53	64	65
PPP	26	25	25	25	22
SOG	198	202	191	215	193
PIM	28	39	31	48	33
Hits	104	114	113	115	99
Blocks	58	45	53	35	69

Sample: 82 GP · 1,025 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

28Steven Stamkos81

29Dylan Cozens80

30Roope Hintz79

31Tomas Hertl78

32Evgeni Malkin70

33Quinton Byfield68

34Mathew Barzal66

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 74% below where it started (6.96 in the first half, 1.82 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

Blks/60

Blks/60 finished the year 66% above where it started (1.91 in the first half, 3.17 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Above his 3-year rate

PIMs/60

PIMs/60 ran 67% above his 3-year rate last season (2.17 against 1.30).

Above his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 20% above his 3-year rate last season (3.47 against 2.88).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Joel Eriksson EkC · Minnesota Wild88% match
shared: G, Blocks, Hits, PPP
Bo HorvatC · New York Islanders86% match
shared: G, PPP, SOG, Blocks
Seth JarvisRW · Carolina Hurricanes84% match
shared: G, PPP, Hits, SOG
Roope HintzC · Dallas Stars84% match
shared: PPP, G

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Tomas Hertl is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Curtis DouglasC,RW · Seattle Krakencovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Ryan Craig (VGK) new voice

Last year: Bruce Cassidy Q1-Q4 · fired Mar 29 → John Tortorella final 8 games · Q4 — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	17.52	17.03	18.83	-10%
5v5 TOI	12.82	12.50	14.31	-13%
PP TOI	3.36	3.47	2.88	+20%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 25 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 17.52: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 12.82: role tapered late (Q4 11.3 vs 12.5 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish
PP TOI → 3.36: new coach (Ryan Craig) — late-year 3.7 role discounted until the new staff sets usage

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.64	6.85	6.50	+5%
G/60	0.38	0.29	0.63	-54%
iSH%	6.32	4.23	9.73	-57%
ixG/60	–	0.92	0.81	+13%
iCF/60	–	13.99	12.78	+9%
iSCF/60	–	9.01	7.86	+15%
iHDCF/60	–	5.15	4.15	+24%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 25 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 4.2% vs 9.7% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 0.92 (88th pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 6.3%, lifting the goal rate ~31%.

RiskAge 32 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.54	8.83	7.86	+12%
IPP	58.90	55.13	70.17	-21%
1A/60	0.59	0.53	0.65	-18%
2A/60	0.41	0.47	0.39	+22%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 25 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindIPP 55.1% sits below the 70.2% 3-yr mark — participation should rebound, nudging assists up.

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 13.99 vs 12.78) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 5.15 vs 4.15) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.36	3.47	2.88	+20%
PP iSH%	20.27	19.09	21.13	-10%
PP SOG/60	13.89	14.35	12.45	+15%
PP ixG/60	–	3.40	2.71	+26%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 25 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~3.4 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 3.40 vs 2.71) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.52	2.17	1.30	+67%
Hits/60	5.66	6.38	4.85	+32%
Blks/60	2.95	2.52	2.97	-15%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 25 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 8.25/60 and 2nd-half 6.83 vs a 6.38 season rate (4.85 3-yr) (71st pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 5.66/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 3.53/60 and 2nd-half 3.17 vs a 2.52 season rate (2.97 3-yr) (50th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.95/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.06/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.