Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2679 GP	H240 GP	H139 GP	Prev 3214 GP · 3y
TOI	19.88	20.02	18.90	18.40	16.69
PP TOI	3.25	2.19	1.79	2.61	1.95
G	▲29	25	36	14	18
A	36	26	21	31	33
PTS	▲65	51	57	45	50
PPP	17	11	8	15	8
SOG	203	188	196	180	151
PIM	50	48	55	40	45
Hits	77	68	73	64	76
Blocks	39	46	43	48	25

Sample: 79 GP · 1,148 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

30Roope Hintz79

31Tomas Hertl78

32Evgeni Malkin70

33Quinton Byfield68

34Mathew Barzal66

35John Tavares66

36Morgan Geekie64

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): The engine anchors power-play minutes on how a role ended, and Byfield's 2025-26 PP time fell by quarter from 3.01 to 1.54, so it projected him at 1.97 as a second-unit piece. That read fit a season where Kopitar (2.96 PP TOI) and Kuzmenko (2.99) held the top unit all year. Both have left, by retirement and in free agency, and the top-unit job is his. Set at 3.25, up from 1.97, which is a 41% jump on his career best of 2.31 and puts him second on the team behind only Panarin. Goals carry a 12% credit on top, because the case here is a real step forward rather than a hot streak: his expected-goal rate, scoring chances and high-danger chances per 60 all hit career highs in the same fourth quarter (0.93, 9.82 and 5.20 against career bands of 0.60 to 0.75, 6.48 to 7.77 and 2.64 to 3.69). A process climbing like that counts as skill. 2 things keep this short of the ceiling. His Q4 shooting percentage was 21.4% and will regress, and his 5v5 playmaking is going the other way, with primary assists down from 0.91 to 0.42 per 60, so the assists are left alone. Even-strength minutes are also left alone at the engine's 16.58, already above last season's 15.90: his 17.13 fourth quarter came in the same stretch his PP time dropped to 1.54, so claiming both at once would imply 22.3 total minutes a night against a career high of 20.02. The result lands at 67, above the external base of 63 and just under the 68 those same sources project as his peak 3 years out.

Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)

TailwindRaise Byfield baseline toward 70 on team-offense tailwind. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

all5v5

Goals ran at a 36 pace in the second half after 14 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 150% above where it started (3.35 in the first half, 17.82 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

We project it up

PPP

We’re projecting power play points 55% above last season, 11 to 17.

We project it up

PP TOI

We’re projecting PP TOI 48% above last season, 2.19 to 3.25.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Mason McTavishC · St. Louis Blues92% match
shared: PIM
Anthony ManthaLW,RW · New Jersey Devils90% match
Alexis LafrenièreLW,RW · New York Rangers89% match
Taylor HallLW · Carolina Hurricanes89% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Quinton Byfield is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Aleksander BarkovC · Florida Pantherscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, Hits
Mitch MarnerC,LW,RW · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 2
fills: A, PPP
Jesper BrattRW · New Jersey Devilscovers 2
fills: A, PPP
Mark StoneRW · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 2
fills: PPP, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Peter Laviolette (LAK) new voice

Last year: Jim Hiller Q1-Q4 · fired Mar → D.J. Smith interim · end Q4 — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	19.88	20.02	16.69	+20%
5v5 TOI	14.87	14.53	13.41	+8%
PP TOI	3.25	2.19	1.95	+13%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 18 · 20 · 20

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 19.88: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 14.87: new coach (Peter Laviolette) — late-year 15.3 role discounted until the new staff sets usage
PP TOI → 3.25: raised again from 3.00: full top-unit treatment with Kopitar and Kuzmenko both gone, capped just under Panarin

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.85	6.85	6.25	+10%
G/60	0.72	0.78	0.56	+38%
iSH%	10.50	11.39	9.04	+26%
ixG/60	–	0.75	0.66	+14%
iCF/60	–	13.43	12.86	+4%
iSCF/60	–	7.73	7.25	+7%
iHDCF/60	–	3.50	3.41	+3%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 18 · 20 · 20

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.75 (68th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.66 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.15	8.50	10.24	-17%
IPP	62.00	58.75	66.17	-11%
1A/60	0.52	0.42	0.73	-43%
2A/60	0.52	0.21	0.67	-69%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 18 · 20 · 20

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 8.5%, IPP 58.8%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.25	2.19	1.95	+13%
PP iSH%	14.03	13.83	14.08	-2%
PP SOG/60	10.65	10.05	10.23	-2%
PP ixG/60	–	2.12	2.53	-16%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 18 · 20 · 20

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindApply a positive team-offense tailwind to LA's skill players and PP. · Coaching landscape report

TailwindPP role projected up: 2.2→3.2 PP TOI/gp (raised again from 3.00: full top-unit treatment with Kopitar and Kuzmenko both gone, capped just under Panarin) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.29	2.19	2.18	+1%
Hits/60	3.64	3.34	4.10	-19%
Blks/60	1.65	1.88	1.30	+44%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 18 · 20 · 20

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 3.34/60 (42nd pct league-wide) → 3.64 projected.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.54/60 and 2nd-half 1.68 below the 1.88 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.65/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.30 3-yr mark.