Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2675 GP	H234 GP	H141 GP	Prev 3220 GP · 3y
TOI	15.65	15.32	13.61	15.49	16.16
PP TOI	2.20	2.05	2.17	1.95	2.46
G	▲18	19	15	21	22
A	▲31	26	21	30	29
PTS	▲49	45	37	51	51
PPP	11	12	12	12	13
SOG	150	160	148	169	176
PIM	41	46	21	66	62
Hits	119	104	125	86	71
Blocks	32	36	27	43	37

Sample: 75 GP · 936 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

62Shane Pinto32

63Matt Duchene29

64Elias Lindholm27

65Mason McTavish27

66Charlie Coyle26

67Max Domi25

68Michael McCarron24

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Baseline is his 2025-26 Anaheim season. Traded to St. Louis for a settled 2C role.

Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)

ContextBaseline capped by current role; large trade-contingent upside. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

TailwindRaise 5v5 floors for Anaheim's young core; minutes must be earned defensively. · Coaching landscape report

TailwindHold a solid 2C line; modest role stability. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

Hits/60

Hits/60 finished the year 83% above where it started (4.23 in the first half, 7.74 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half fade

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 21 pace in the second half after 66 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 31% below his 3-year rate last season (7.51 against 10.82).

Below his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 17% below his 3-year rate last season (2.05 against 2.46).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Quinton ByfieldC,LW · Los Angeles Kings92% match
shared: PIM
Logan CooleyC · Utah Mammoth88% match
Gabriel LandeskogLW · Colorado Avalanche88% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Mason MarchmentLW · San Jose Sharks88% match
shared: PIM, Hits

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Mason McTavish is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Aleksander BarkovC · Florida Pantherscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 3
fills: SOG, PPP, A
Patrick KaneRW · Chicago Blackhawkscovers 3
fills: PPP, A, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jim Montgomery (STL)

Last year (ANA, traded): Joel Quenneville full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	15.65	15.32	16.16	-5%
5v5 TOI	11.55	12.49	13.03	-4%
PP TOI	2.20	2.05	2.46	-17%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 17 · 17

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 15.65: holds last year's role; age 23 riser — small growth bias
5v5 TOI → 11.55: role tapered late (Q4 10.4 vs 12.5 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish
PP TOI → 2.20: same coach (Jim Montgomery) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 2.2, Q4 2.2) over the full-year 2.0; age 23 riser — small growth bias

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.99	6.79	6.59	+3%
G/60	0.61	0.51	0.71	-28%
iSH%	8.77	7.51	10.82	-31%
ixG/60	–	0.96	0.78	+23%
iCF/60	–	15.82	12.37	+28%
iSCF/60	–	8.65	7.52	+15%
iHDCF/60	–	4.80	3.89	+23%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 17 · 17

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 7.5% vs 10.8% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 0.96 (92nd pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 8.8%, lifting the goal rate ~20%.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 1.06 (1st half) to 0.80 (2nd) even though shot volume held — a chance-quality dip, not a volume one.

TailwindAge 23 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.44	9.33	9.71	-4%
IPP	59.09	55.56	69.80	-20%
1A/60	0.68	0.70	0.69	+1%
2A/60	0.50	0.38	0.44	-14%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 17 · 17

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindIPP 55.6% sits below the 69.8% 3-yr mark — participation should rebound, nudging assists up.

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 15.82 vs 12.37) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 4.80 vs 3.89) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.20	2.05	2.46	-17%
PP iSH%	13.93	19.98	12.23	+63%
PP SOG/60	11.63	11.71	15.40	-24%
PP ixG/60	–	2.09	2.45	-15%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 17 · 17

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~2.2 PP TOI/gp.

RiskPP finishing ran hot (20.0% vs 12.2% 3-yr) with flat PP chances (PP ixG/60 2.09) — expect PP goals to cool.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.96	2.31	3.01	-23%
Hits/60	6.99	5.64	3.85	+46%
Blks/60	1.86	1.92	1.90	+1%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 17 · 17

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 9.20/60 and 2nd-half 7.74 vs a 5.64 season rate (3.85 3-yr) (66th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 6.99/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.70/60 and 2nd-half 1.56 below the 1.92 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.86/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.90 3-yr mark.