Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2680 GP	H241 GP	H139 GP	Prev 3234 GP · 3y
TOI	14.99	14.88	14.38	13.80	15.27
PP TOI	1.47	1.36	1.20	1.54	1.83
G	12	12	17	7	13
A	28	25	19	30	35
PTS	40	37	36	38	48
PPP	8	8	8	8	10
SOG	127	121	112	130	143
PIM	118	97	146	46	97
Hits	37	38	35	41	37
Blocks	32	36	36	36	27

Sample: 80 GP · 1,017 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

64Elias Lindholm27

65Mason McTavish27

66Charlie Coyle26

67Max Domi25

68Michael McCarron24

69William Karlsson23

70Anthony Cirelli23

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 150% above where it started (3.84 in the first half, 12.22 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 146 pace in the second half after 46 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 40% below his 3-year rate last season (0.65 against 1.08).

Below his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 26% below his 3-year rate last season (1.36 against 1.83).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Zach BensonLW · Buffalo Sabres88% match
shared: PIM
Taylor HallLW · Carolina Hurricanes82% match
Easton CowanC,RW · Toronto Maple Leafs80% match
shared: PIM
Trevor ZegrasC,LW · Philadelphia Flyers79% match
shared: PIM

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Max Domi is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Rickard RakellLW,RW · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 4
fills: G, SOG, Hits, PPP
Cole CaufieldLW · Montreal Canadienscovers 3
fills: G, SOG, PPP
Seth JarvisRW · Carolina Hurricanescovers 4
fills: G, SOG, PPP, Hits
Alex OvechkinLW,RW · Washington Capitalscovers 4
fills: SOG, G, PPP, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jim Hiller (TOR) new voice

Last year: Craig Berube full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	14.99	14.88	15.27	-3%
5v5 TOI	12.74	12.72	12.84	-1%
PP TOI	1.47	1.36	1.83	-26%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 18 · 23 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 14.99: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 12.74: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 1.47: role tapered late (Q4 1.3 vs 1.4 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.07	5.07	5.99	-15%
G/60	0.40	0.41	0.46	-11%
iSH%	7.86	8.09	7.69	+5%
ixG/60	–	0.40	0.49	-18%
iCF/60	–	10.55	10.83	-3%
iSCF/60	–	4.78	5.61	-15%
iHDCF/60	–	1.71	2.31	-26%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 18 · 23 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 8.1% sits near the 7.7% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.40 (35th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 15% (5v5 SOG/60 5.07 vs 5.99) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.63	7.65	10.24	-25%
IPP	64.52	63.11	66.24	-5%
1A/60	0.82	0.65	1.08	-40%
2A/60	0.33	0.24	0.46	-48%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 18 · 23 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 7.6%, IPP 63.1%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.47	1.36	1.83	-26%
PP iSH%	9.70	8.33	10.70	-22%
PP SOG/60	12.83	13.20	11.74	+12%
PP ixG/60	–	1.65	1.29	+28%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 18 · 23 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 1.4→1.5 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 1.3 vs 1.4 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 1.65 vs 1.29) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	7.03	5.60	5.23	+7%
Hits/60	2.03	2.06	2.06	+0%
Blks/60	1.69	1.89	1.40	+35%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 18 · 23 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 1.65/60 and 2nd-half 1.85 below the 2.06 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.03/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.06 3-yr mark.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 1.89/60 (29th pct league-wide) → 1.69 projected.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.29/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.