Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2682 GP	H242 GP	H140 GP	Prev 3247 GP · 3y
TOI	17.78	18.10	17.51	16.18	17.35
PP TOI	2.15	2.02	2.75	1.25	1.45
G	21	20	25	14	19
A	31	38	36	40	27
PTS	52	58	62	54	46
PPP	12	13	20	6	6
SOG	145	142	165	117	133
PIM	18	14	16	12	31
Hits	99	111	101	122	102
Blocks	59	53	56	50	59

Sample: 82 GP · 1,046 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

63Matt Duchene29

64Elias Lindholm27

65Mason McTavish27

66Charlie Coyle26

67Max Domi25

68Michael McCarron24

69William Karlsson23

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): NEW 2026-07-27 (CBJ pass). Essentially a HOLD - the outside reads genuinely split on him (58 from one host, 46 from the other source) and our 53 sat in the middle, which is where a real disagreement should land. His PP TOI rose 1.07 -> 3.27 across the season, so the PP1-by-year-end read has teeth and is NOT being faded away. Only the small zero-sum PP trim above is applied; no rate multiplier. Our 53 already fades him to 2.18 p/60 from an actual 2.34, and a 1.54 a/60 at age 33 was a career high. Expect ~52.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PPP

Power play points ran at a 20 pace in the second half after 6 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

PP TOI

PP TOI finished the year 119% above where it started (1.26 in the first half, 2.77 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Above his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 111% above his 3-year rate last season (1.09 against 0.52).

Above his 3-year rate

ixG/60

ixG/60 ran 30% above his 3-year rate last season (0.88 against 0.68).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Morgan FrostC · Calgary Flames87% match
shared: Blocks
Ivan BarbashevLW · Vegas Golden Knights85% match
shared: Hits
Elias LindholmC · Boston Bruins83% match
shared: Blocks
Marco RossiC · Vancouver Canucks82% match
shared: Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Charlie Coyle is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Evgeni MalkinC,LW · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 3
fills: PIM, PPP, SOG
Matvei MichkovLW,RW · Philadelphia Flyerscovers 2
fills: PIM, SOG
Connor BedardC · Chicago Blackhawkscovers 3
fills: SOG, PPP, PIM
Mikko RantanenRW · Dallas Starscovers 3
fills: PPP, PIM, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Rick Bowness (CBJ)

Last year: Dean Evason Q1-Q2 → Rick Bowness Q3-Q4 · hired Jan — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	17.78	18.10	17.35	+4%
5v5 TOI	12.53	12.77	12.70	+1%
PP TOI	2.15	2.02	1.45	+39%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 22 · 20

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 17.78: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 12.53: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 2.15: NEW 2026-07-27 (CBJ pass). Small trim, 2.29 -> 2.15. Coyle and Johnson were both being paid ~2.2-2.3 PP min for the same swing PP1 slot, and that specific pair is zero-sum. The trim is also consistent with age 34 and with a 25.9% PP shooting rate that outran a 2.12 ixG/60. CORRECTION 2026-07-27: an earlier version of this note also claimed a team-level PP-minute overrun. That was wrong - Columbus sits 4th LOWEST in the league at 18.5 forward PP min/gm (median ~22.5). The Coyle/Johnson pairwise argument holds; the team-budget one does not.

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.56	5.73	5.68	+1%
G/60	0.68	0.63	0.80	-22%
iSH%	12.20	10.99	14.15	-22%
ixG/60	–	0.88	0.68	+30%
iCF/60	–	10.60	10.75	-1%
iSCF/60	–	6.59	6.90	-5%
iHDCF/60	–	4.01	3.52	+14%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 22 · 20

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 11.0% vs 14.2% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 0.88 (85th pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 12.2%, lifting the goal rate ~8%.

RiskAge 34 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.14	10.34	9.26	+12%
IPP	75.53	76.85	69.74	+10%
1A/60	0.83	1.09	0.52	+111%
2A/60	0.45	0.57	0.48	+19%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 22 · 20

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 10.3%, IPP 76.8%).

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 4.01 vs 3.52) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.15	2.02	1.45	+39%
PP iSH%	21.46	25.94	18.21	+42%
PP SOG/60	12.28	9.79	9.20	+6%
PP ixG/60	–	2.12	1.69	+25%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 22 · 20

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~2.1 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 2.12 vs 1.69) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.98	0.80	1.42	-44%
Hits/60	5.06	5.56	5.10	+9%
Blks/60	2.20	1.95	2.57	-24%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 22 · 20

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 5.36/60 and 2nd-half 4.78 below the 5.56 season rate — projected DOWN to 5.06/60, weighting the recent decline over the 5.10 3-yr mark.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 1.95/60 (31st pct league-wide) → 2.20 projected.