Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2682 GP	H243 GP	H139 GP	Prev 3234 GP · 3y
TOI	16.30	16.24	16.02	15.23	16.54
PP TOI	1.10	0.86	0.94	0.76	1.61
G	23	23	20	26	20
A	33	38	38	38	29
PTS	56	61	58	64	49
PPP	5	6	8	4	5
SOG	129	133	141	125	126
PIM	21	14	15	13	33
Hits	147	137	141	132	163
Blocks	37	37	35	39	41

Sample: 82 GP · 1,211 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

84Jamie Benn21

85Pavel Buchnevich20

86Chris Kreider20

87Ivan Barbashev19

88Ridly Greig19

89Jonah Gadjovich19

90Michael Pezzetta19

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Below his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 47% below his 3-year rate last season (0.86 against 1.61).

Second-half fade

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 36% below where it started (21.38 in the first half, 13.64 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half fade

1A/60

1A/60 finished the year 27% below where it started (1.18 in the first half, 0.85 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

We project it down

PPP

We’re projecting power play points 17% below last season, 6 to 5.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Charlie CoyleC,RW · Columbus Blue Jackets85% match
shared: Hits
Alexis LafrenièreLW,RW · New York Rangers84% match
shared: Hits
Mackie SamoskevichLW,RW · Seattle Kraken83% match
shared: Hits
Cole PerfettiLW,RW · Winnipeg Jets81% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Ivan Barbashev is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Evgeni MalkinC,LW · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 3
fills: PIM, PPP, SOG
Matvei MichkovLW,RW · Philadelphia Flyerscovers 2
fills: PIM, SOG
Connor BedardC · Chicago Blackhawkscovers 3
fills: SOG, PPP, PIM
Mikko RantanenRW · Dallas Starscovers 3
fills: PPP, PIM, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Ryan Craig (VGK) new voice

Last year: Bruce Cassidy Q1-Q4 · fired Mar 29 → John Tortorella final 8 games · Q4 — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	16.30	16.24	16.54	-2%
5v5 TOI	14.62	14.78	14.26	+4%
PP TOI	1.10	0.86	1.61	-47%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 25 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 16.30: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 14.62: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 1.10: new coach (Ryan Craig) — late-year 1.2 role discounted until the new staff sets usage

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.74	5.74	5.33	+8%
G/60	0.95	0.99	0.81	+22%
iSH%	16.47	17.25	15.21	+13%
ixG/60	–	0.73	0.69	+6%
iCF/60	–	10.70	10.21	+5%
iSCF/60	–	7.38	7.61	-3%
iHDCF/60	–	4.01	3.76	+7%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 25 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.73 (65th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.69 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	11.19	11.56	10.45	+11%
IPP	71.28	75.85	65.48	+16%
1A/60	0.96	0.99	0.83	+20%
2A/60	0.51	0.69	0.45	+54%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 25 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskAssists projected DOWN: on-ice SH% 11.6% (3-yr 10.5%) AND IPP 75.9% (3-yr 65.5%) both ran hot — team finishing + participation luck stacked. Regressing both trims the assist rate ~5%.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.10	0.86	1.61	-47%
PP iSH%	17.40	19.98	15.54	+29%
PP SOG/60	8.22	8.56	7.19	+19%
PP ixG/60	–	1.71	1.40	+22%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 25 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.9→1.1 PP TOI/gp (new coach (Ryan Craig) — late-year 1.2 role discounted until the new staff sets usage) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 1.71 vs 1.40) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.93	0.69	1.55	-55%
Hits/60	7.35	6.74	8.24	-18%
Blks/60	1.76	1.78	1.91	-7%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 25 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 8.29/60 and 2nd-half 7.04 vs a 6.74 season rate (8.24 3-yr) (74th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 7.35/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.18/60 and 2nd-half 1.58 below the 1.78 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.76/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.91 3-yr mark.