Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2681 GP	H238 GP	H143 GP	Prev 3219 GP · 3y
TOI	18.24	17.94	16.55	17.47	19.44
PP TOI	2.32	2.38	2.15	2.59	2.79
G	22	20	25	17	27
A	34	28	25	32	43
PTS	56	49	50	48	70
PPP	15	15	15	15	19
SOG	148	144	141	146	178
PIM	29	26	21	31	40
Hits	32	30	21	38	53
Blocks	42	40	50	32	30

Sample: 81 GP · 1,049 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

69William Karlsson23

70Anthony Cirelli23

71Easton Cowan22

72Pavel Buchnevich20

73Ridly Greig19

74John Hayden18

75Connor McMichael16

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 84% above where it started (9.63 in the first half, 17.68 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

BLK

all5v5

Blocks ran at a 50 pace in the second half after 32 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it up

all5v5

We’re projecting assists 21% above last season, 28 to 34.

We project it up

PTS

all5v5

We’re projecting points 14% above last season, 49 to 56.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Jordan EberleRW · Seattle Kraken93% match
Logan CooleyC · Utah Mammoth88% match
Leo CarlssonC · Anaheim Ducks86% match
shared: A
Marco RossiC · Vancouver Canucks85% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Pavel Buchnevich is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Liam O'BrienLW · Utah Mammothcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jacob MelansonRW · Seattle Krakencovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jim Montgomery (STL)

Last year: Jim Montgomery full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	18.24	17.94	19.44	-8%
5v5 TOI	13.01	12.96	13.93	-7%
PP TOI	2.32	2.38	2.79	-14%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 20 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 18.24: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 13.01: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 2.32: role tapered late (Q4 1.8 vs 2.4 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.77	5.77	6.45	-11%
G/60	0.75	0.74	0.87	-15%
iSH%	13.06	12.82	13.44	-5%
ixG/60	–	0.72	0.71	+1%
iCF/60	–	11.55	11.90	-3%
iSCF/60	–	7.09	7.26	-2%
iHDCF/60	–	3.09	3.21	-4%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 20 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 12.8% sits near the 13.4% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.72 (64th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 11% (5v5 SOG/60 5.77 vs 6.45) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.28	9.95	10.68	-7%
IPP	62.42	59.92	65.48	-8%
1A/60	0.58	0.51	0.71	-28%
2A/60	0.45	0.29	0.51	-43%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 20 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 9.9%, IPP 59.9%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.32	2.38	2.79	-14%
PP iSH%	19.05	17.34	19.53	-11%
PP SOG/60	7.17	7.15	9.05	-21%
PP ixG/60	–	1.49	1.57	-5%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 20 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~2.3 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.20	1.14	1.73	-34%
Hits/60	1.65	1.60	2.40	-33%
Blks/60	1.73	1.49	1.12	+33%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 20 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 1.33/60 and 2nd-half 1.13 below the 1.60 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.65/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.40 3-yr mark.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 2.13/60 and 2nd-half 2.12 vs a 1.49 season rate (1.12 3-yr) (16th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 1.73/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.