Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2636 GP	H226 GP	H110 GP	Prev 3thin
TOI	9.63	9.37	9.57	8.84	–
PP TOI	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.01	–
G	▲6	5	6	0	–
A	▲8	7	0	25	–
PTS	▲14	11	6	25	–
PPP	0	0	0	0	–
SOG	▲82	75	79	66	–
PIM	▼74	73	101	-0	–
Hits	▼380	431	465	344	–
Blocks	▼25	30	31	25	–

Sample: 36 GP · 336 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingRight wing · league-wide (of 273)

91Jackson Blake23

92Viktor Arvidsson22

93Easton Cowan22

94Jacob Melanson22

95Pavel Buchnevich20

96Ridly Greig19

97Jonah Gadjovich19

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Rookie baseline: projected role (~425-Hit pace, one-cat Hits/PIM lock; one day could become someone like Sherwood) blended with 2025-26 NHL (36 GP) at w=0.50. Per-82 line; GP/availability is separate. Tune here.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

HITS

all5v5

Hits ran at a 465 pace in the second half after 344 in the first, per 82 games.

Bottom of the league

PP TOI

PP TOI sits in the 4th percentile league-wide (0.01).

Second-half surge

Blks/60

Blks/60 finished the year 31% above where it started (2.04 in the first half, 2.67 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Bottom of the league

TOI

TOI sits in the 4th percentile league-wide (9.37).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafs95% match
shared: Hits, PIM
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Panthers94% match
shared: Hits, PIM
Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Blues94% match
shared: Hits, PIM
Liam O'BrienLW · Utah Mammoth93% match
shared: Hits, PIM

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Jacob Melanson is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 4
fills: SOG, A, PPP, G
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, G
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 4
fills: PPP, SOG, G, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Lane Lambert (SEA)

Last year: Lane Lambert full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
TOI	9.63	9.37	n/a
5v5 TOI	9.47	9.35	n/a
PP TOI	0.01	0.01	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 10 · 17 · 9

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 9.63: one NHL season — role grown +3% toward a sophomore workload
5v5 TOI → 9.47: role tapered late (Q4 8.1 vs 9.4 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish; one NHL season — role grown +3% toward a sophomore workload
PP TOI → 0.01: same coach (Lane Lambert) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.0, Q4 0.0) over the full-year 0.0; one NHL season — role grown +3% toward a sophomore workload

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
SOG/60	6.06	5.88	n/a
G/60	0.37	0.36	n/a
iSH%	6.12	6.12	n/a
ixG/60	–	0.95	n/a
iCF/60	–	14.26	n/a
iSCF/60	–	8.73	n/a
iHDCF/60	–	4.63	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 10 · 17 · 9

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindAge 23 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

TailwindAge 23 on a single NHL season — projected a development step, not a flat repeat: scoring rates +4% and role +3% toward the mid-20s peak (a young riser improves on last year, not repeats it).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
on-ice SH%	8.33	8.33	n/a
IPP	45.41	45.41	n/a
1A/60	0.18	0.18	n/a
2A/60	0.36	0.36	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 10 · 17 · 9

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 8.3%, IPP 45.4%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PP TOI	0.01	0.01	n/a
PP iSH%	–	n/a	n/a
PP SOG/60	0.00	0.00	n/a
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 10 · 17 · 9

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.0→0.0 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Lane Lambert) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.0, Q4 0.0) over the full-year 0.0; one NHL season — role grown +3% toward a sophomore workload) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PIMs/60	6.00	5.70	n/a
Hits/60	33.50	33.50	n/a
Blks/60	2.41	2.32	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 10 · 17 · 9

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProject Melanson as an elite HITS/PIM specialist for 2026-27 (Sherwood-tier), with negligible G/A/PTS.

TailwindElite hits volume (100th pct) and role-stable — a bankable hits floor (33.50/60 projected).

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 3.30/60 and 2nd-half 2.67 vs a 2.32 season rate (n/a 3-yr) (43rd pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.41/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.36/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.