Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2678 GP	H236 GP	H142 GP	Prev 3244 GP · 3y
TOI	20.37	20.84	19.25	19.73	19.80
PP TOI	3.34	3.38	3.32	3.43	3.44
G	33	29	32	28	39
A	59	59	63	55	62
PTS	92	88	95	83	101
PPP	30	24	25	23	36
SOG	230	236	219	249	250
PIM	19	21	16	26	25
Hits	13	12	9	14	21
Blocks	15	17	19	15	12

Sample: 78 GP · 1,257 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

18Timo Meier92

19Clayton Keller90

20Mitch Marner88

21Artemi Panarin85

22Steven Stamkos81

23Cole Caufield80

24Pavel Dorofeyev79

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

1A/60

1A/60 finished the year 40% above where it started (0.61 in the first half, 0.86 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

We project it up

PPP

We’re projecting power play points 25% above last season, 24 to 30.

Second-half fade

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 16 pace in the second half after 26 in the first, per 82 games.

Bottom of the league

Hits/60

Hits/60 sits in the 2th percentile league-wide (0.52).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafs91% match
shared: PPP, A, SOG, G
Kyle ConnorLW · Winnipeg Jets89% match
shared: SOG, A, G, PPP
Clayton KellerLW · Utah Mammoth85% match
shared: A, PPP, SOG, G
Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devils83% match
shared: A, PPP, SOG, G

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Artemi Panarin is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Liam O'BrienLW · Utah Mammothcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Peter Laviolette (LAK) new voice

Last year (NYR, traded): D.J. Smith LAK · pre-trade → Mike Sullivan NYR · acquired mid-season (small sample) — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	20.37	20.84	19.80	+5%
5v5 TOI	15.67	16.12	15.25	+6%
PP TOI	3.34	3.38	3.44	-2%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 20 · 16 · 20

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 20.37: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 15.67: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 3.34: holds last year's role

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.09	6.35	7.59	-16%
G/60	0.95	0.95	1.22	-22%
iSH%	15.62	14.96	16.10	-7%
ixG/60	–	0.54	0.64	-16%
iCF/60	–	14.31	15.83	-10%
iSCF/60	–	7.16	7.76	-8%
iHDCF/60	–	1.62	2.18	-26%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 20 · 16 · 20

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 15.0% sits near the 16.1% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.54 (42nd pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 16% (5v5 SOG/60 6.35 vs 7.59) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

RiskAge 34 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.77	11.36	10.04	+13%
IPP	77.77	73.86	82.54	-11%
1A/60	0.73	0.72	0.78	-7%
2A/60	0.72	0.76	0.66	+15%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 20 · 16 · 20

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 11.4%, IPP 73.9%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.34	3.38	3.44	-2%
PP iSH%	9.99	5.63	13.15	-57%
PP SOG/60	15.93	16.16	15.24	+6%
PP ixG/60	–	1.69	1.69	+0%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 20 · 16 · 20

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindApply a positive team-offense tailwind to LA's skill players and PP. · Coaching landscape report

ContextPP role steady at ~3.3 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP finishing ran cold (5.6% vs 13.2%) over steady PP chances — PP goals should rebound.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.78	0.86	0.90	-5%
Hits/60	0.61	0.52	0.89	-41%
Blks/60	0.69	0.67	0.40	+66%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 20 · 16 · 20

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 0.58/60 and 2nd-half 0.40 below the 0.52 season rate — projected DOWN to 0.61/60, weighting the recent decline over the 0.89 3-yr mark.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 0.96/60 and 2nd-half 0.82 vs a 0.67 season rate (0.40 3-yr) (0th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 0.69/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.