Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2682 GP	H242 GP	H140 GP	Prev 3229 GP · 3y
TOI	21.35	21.51	20.86	19.56	20.25
PP TOI	3.12	3.10	3.13	3.08	3.28
G	39	39	40	39	38
A	52	53	44	62	47
PTS	91	92	84	101	85
PPP	21	19	18	20	27
SOG	273	274	263	285	272
PIM	16	16	15	16	18
Hits	47	36	50	21	28
Blocks	33	19	26	13	31

Sample: 82 GP · 1,317 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

14Tim Stützle100

15Brandon Hagel99

16Dylan Holloway99

17Kyle Connor98

18Timo Meier92

19Clayton Keller90

20Mitch Marner88

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Above his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 61% above his 3-year rate last season (0.87 against 0.54).

We project it up

HITS

all5v5

We’re projecting hits 31% above last season, 36 to 47.

Second-half fade

all5v5

Assists ran at a 44 pace in the second half after 62 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

PP SOG/60

PP SOG/60 ran 35% below his 3-year rate last season (10.37 against 15.84).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafs90% match
shared: SOG, G, A, PPP
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kings89% match
shared: SOG, A, G, PPP
Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devils87% match
shared: SOG, G, A, PPP
Jordan KyrouRW · Washington Capitals86% match
shared: SOG, G, A, PPP

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Kyle Connor is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Scott Arniel (WPG)

Last year: Scott Arniel full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	21.35	21.51	20.25	+6%
5v5 TOI	16.26	16.07	15.42	+4%
PP TOI	3.12	3.10	3.28	-5%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 22 · 20

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 21.35: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 16.26: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 3.12: holds last year's role

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	8.88	8.88	8.58	+3%
G/60	1.13	1.09	1.15	-5%
iSH%	12.72	12.27	13.44	-9%
ixG/60	–	0.86	0.87	-1%
iCF/60	–	16.03	15.31	+5%
iSCF/60	–	9.70	9.79	-1%
iHDCF/60	–	3.32	4.08	-19%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 22 · 20

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 12.3% sits near the 13.4% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.86 (83rd pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	11.85	12.85	9.83	+31%
IPP	73.23	73.00	73.93	-1%
1A/60	0.74	0.87	0.54	+61%
2A/60	0.47	0.50	0.43	+18%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 22 · 20

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 12.8% vs a 9.8% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.12	3.10	3.28	-5%
PP iSH%	11.16	11.38	11.10	+3%
PP SOG/60	11.26	10.37	15.84	-35%
PP ixG/60	–	1.29	1.66	-22%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 22 · 20

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskApply a mild cap to star ceilings under spread-the-wealth usage. · Fantasy coaching primer

ContextPP role steady at ~3.1 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.61	0.73	0.73	-0%
Hits/60	1.98	1.55	1.26	+23%
Blks/60	1.04	0.77	1.21	-36%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 22 · 20

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 3.29/60 and 2nd-half 2.13 vs a 1.55 season rate (1.26 3-yr) (17th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 1.98/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 1.28/60 and 2nd-half 1.04 vs a 0.77 season rate (1.21 3-yr) (1st pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 1.04/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.