Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2680 GP	H240 GP	H140 GP	Prev 3235 GP · 3y
TOI	20.28	20.27	18.64	19.03	20.71
PP TOI	3.57	3.43	3.48	3.39	3.65
G	29	35	29	41	28
A	51	50	51	49	55
PTS	80	85	80	90	83
PPP	28	30	29	31	28
SOG	193	199	189	209	203
PIM	39	40	39	41	45
Hits	123	129	115	143	119
Blocks	39	45	36	54	46

Sample: 80 GP · 1,082 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

13Dylan Larkin107

14J.T. Miller102

15Adam Fantilli102

16Tim Stützle100

17Mark Scheifele94

18Vincent Trocheck91

19Sebastian Aho89

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

BLK

all5v5

Blocks ran at a 36 pace in the second half after 54 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

all5v5

Goals ran at a 29 pace in the second half after 41 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 20% above his 3-year rate last season (0.83 against 0.69).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

J.T. MillerC,LW,RW · New York Rangers91% match
shared: A, PPP, Hits, G
Sidney CrosbyC · Pittsburgh Penguins84% match
shared: A, PPP, G, SOG
Roope HintzC · Dallas Stars84% match
shared: A, PPP, G
Tomas HertlC,LW · Vegas Golden Knights83% match
shared: PPP, Hits, G, Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Tim Stützle is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Liam O'BrienLW · Utah Mammothcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jeffrey VielLW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Travis Green (OTT)

Last year: Travis Green full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	20.28	20.27	20.71	-2%
5v5 TOI	13.40	13.53	15.18	-11%
PP TOI	3.57	3.43	3.65	-6%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 22 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 20.28: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 13.40: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 3.57: same coach (Travis Green) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 3.5, Q4 3.8) over the full-year 3.4

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.21	6.21	6.44	-4%
G/60	0.87	0.94	0.78	+21%
iSH%	13.97	15.14	12.06	+26%
ixG/60	–	0.76	0.70	+8%
iCF/60	–	12.14	12.13	+0%
iSCF/60	–	8.26	7.47	+11%
iHDCF/60	–	3.71	3.35	+11%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 22 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.76 (70th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.70 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.86 (1st half) to 0.66 (2nd) even though shot volume held — a chance-quality dip, not a volume one.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.53	11.68	8.90	+31%
IPP	71.48	71.25	71.99	-1%
1A/60	0.76	0.83	0.69	+20%
2A/60	0.59	0.55	0.66	-16%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 22 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 11.7% vs a 8.9% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 3.71 vs 3.35) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.57	3.43	3.65	-6%
PP iSH%	12.82	21.48	12.14	+77%
PP SOG/60	9.05	9.17	9.23	-1%
PP ixG/60	–	1.12	1.20	-7%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 22 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~3.6 PP TOI/gp.

RiskPP finishing ran hot (21.5% vs 12.1% 3-yr) with flat PP chances (PP ixG/60 1.12) — expect PP goals to cool.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.80	1.94	1.61	+20%
Hits/60	5.81	5.99	5.54	+8%
Blks/60	1.77	2.05	2.04	+1%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 22 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 5.99/60 (69th pct league-wide) → 5.81 projected.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.01/60 and 2nd-half 1.53 below the 2.05 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.77/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.04 3-yr mark.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.06/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.