Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2679 GP	H238 GP	H141 GP	Prev 3232 GP · 3y
TOI	19.63	19.61	17.89	18.41	19.75
PP TOI	3.13	3.16	3.05	3.26	3.23
G	32	28	24	32	36
A	49	55	59	51	46
PTS	81	83	82	84	81
PPP	25	28	32	24	25
SOG	208	202	205	200	227
PIM	51	48	54	42	44
Hits	61	65	57	73	59
Blocks	22	24	16	31	23

Sample: 79 GP · 1,051 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

16Tim Stützle100

17Mark Scheifele94

18Vincent Trocheck91

19Sebastian Aho89

20Mitch Marner88

21Mika Zibanejad84

22Nico Hischier84

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)

TailwindTreat as a stable, low-variance baseline. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

BLK

all5v5

Blocks ran at a 16 pace in the second half after 31 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

PPP

Power play points ran at a 32 pace in the second half after 24 in the first, per 82 games.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Martin NecasRW · Colorado Avalanche89% match
shared: A, PPP, SOG, G
Kevin FialaLW,RW · Los Angeles Kings87% match
shared: PPP, SOG, G, PIM
Nazem KadriC · Colorado Avalanche87% match
shared: SOG, PPP, A, G
Brad MarchandLW,RW · Florida Panthers86% match
shared: PPP, G, SOG, A

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Sebastian Aho is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jacob MelansonRW · Seattle Krakencovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Liam O'BrienLW · Utah Mammothcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Rod Brind'Amour (CAR)

Last year: Rod Brind'Amour full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	19.63	19.61	19.75	-1%
5v5 TOI	13.16	13.31	13.57	-2%
PP TOI	3.13	3.16	3.23	-2%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 22 · 16

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 19.63: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 13.16: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 3.13: established top role held near 3.2 — the late dip (Q4 2.9) reads mostly as rest / season wear, not lost usage

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	7.02	6.96	7.49	-7%
G/60	0.84	0.80	0.95	-16%
iSH%	11.97	11.49	12.75	-10%
ixG/60	–	0.89	0.87	+2%
iCF/60	–	14.27	14.84	-4%
iSCF/60	–	8.10	8.56	-5%
iHDCF/60	–	3.65	4.15	-12%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 22 · 16

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 11.5% sits near the 12.8% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.89 (86th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.99	8.83	9.19	-4%
IPP	65.37	65.29	65.49	-0%
1A/60	0.84	0.86	0.84	+3%
2A/60	0.29	0.40	0.23	+77%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 22 · 16

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 8.8%, IPP 65.3%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.13	3.16	3.23	-2%
PP iSH%	15.50	15.88	15.22	+4%
PP SOG/60	10.88	10.58	12.08	-12%
PP ixG/60	–	1.72	1.65	+4%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 22 · 16

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~3.1 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.25	1.94	1.71	+13%
Hits/60	2.90	3.08	2.67	+16%
Blks/60	0.83	1.03	0.93	+10%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 22 · 16

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 2.93/60 and 2nd-half 2.69 below the 3.08 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.90/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.67 3-yr mark.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 0.59/60 and 2nd-half 0.60 below the 1.03 season rate — projected DOWN to 0.83/60, weighting the recent decline over the 0.93 3-yr mark.