Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2681 GP	H242 GP	H139 GP	Prev 3150 GP · 2y
TOI	20.20	19.96	18.23	18.82	21.30
PP TOI	3.55	3.60	3.37	3.84	3.08
G	27	24	28	20	29
A	▲70	57	49	65	73
PTS	▲97	81	77	85	102
PPP	33	24	25	23	33
SOG	171	167	170	163	181
PIM	19	24	24	25	18
Hits	30	24	20	28	59
Blocks	42	47	40	53	50

Sample: 81 GP · 1,106 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

17Mark Scheifele94

18Vincent Trocheck91

19Sebastian Aho89

20Mitch Marner88

21Mika Zibanejad84

22Nico Hischier84

23Sidney Crosby84

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Baseline (88) already near the range; small nudge. Buy-low on the lingering 'Vegas villain' narrative.

Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)

TailwindHold/nudge an elite 90-point playmaker line; buy-low on lingering narrative. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

We project it up

PPP

We’re projecting power play points 38% above last season, 24 to 33.

Second-half surge

all5v5

Goals ran at a 28 pace in the second half after 20 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 55% below his 3-year rate last season (1.25 against 2.77).

Second-half fade

Blks/60

Blks/60 finished the year 39% below where it started (2.36 in the first half, 1.44 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Mats ZuccarelloRW · Los Angeles Kings89% match
shared: A, PPP, Blocks
Ryan Nugent-HopkinsC,LW · Edmonton Oilers87% match
shared: PPP, A
Robert ThomasC · St. Louis Blues85% match
shared: A, PPP, Blocks
Nick SchmaltzC,RW · Utah Mammoth85% match
shared: A, PPP, Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Mitch Marner is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Liam O'BrienLW · Utah Mammothcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Ryan Craig (VGK) new voice

Last year: Bruce Cassidy Q1-Q4 · fired Mar 29 → John Tortorella final 8 games · Q4 — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	20.20	19.96	21.30	-6%
5v5 TOI	13.76	13.66	14.59	-6%
PP TOI	3.55	3.60	3.08	+17%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 24 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 20.20: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 13.76: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 3.55: holds last year's role

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.02	6.02	5.92	+2%
G/60	0.93	0.98	0.85	+16%
iSH%	15.53	16.28	14.31	+14%
ixG/60	–	0.64	0.61	+6%
iCF/60	–	12.96	14.34	-10%
iSCF/60	–	7.16	7.49	-4%
iHDCF/60	–	3.04	2.41	+26%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 24 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.64 (54th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.61 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	11.11	11.12	11.09	+0%
IPP	81.44	81.85	80.45	+2%
1A/60	1.09	1.14	1.04	+10%
2A/60	0.68	0.54	0.71	-24%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 24 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 11.1%, IPP 81.8%).

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 3.04 vs 2.41) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.55	3.60	3.08	+17%
PP iSH%	19.67	11.92	21.86	-45%
PP SOG/60	8.57	8.64	8.30	+4%
PP ixG/60	–	0.86	1.31	-34%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 24 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~3.6 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.70	0.76	0.61	+25%
Hits/60	1.53	1.25	2.77	-55%
Blks/60	1.67	1.90	1.78	+7%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 24 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 0.75/60 and 2nd-half 1.01 below the 1.25 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.53/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.77 3-yr mark.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.25/60 and 2nd-half 1.44 below the 1.90 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.67/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.78 3-yr mark.