Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2667 GP	H238 GP	H129 GP	Prev 3246 GP · 3y
TOI	20.40	20.55	19.19	19.69	20.62
PP TOI	3.23	3.08	3.49	2.55	3.07
G	21	20	15	26	24
A	40	45	47	42	42
PTS	61	65	62	69	67
PPP	19	20	24	14	18
SOG	158	140	137	144	214
PIM	65	78	99	51	52
Hits	197	236	211	269	190
Blocks	60	60	54	68	68

Sample: 67 GP · 959 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

15Adam Fantilli102

16Tim Stützle100

17Mark Scheifele94

18Vincent Trocheck91

19Sebastian Aho89

20Mitch Marner88

21Mika Zibanejad84

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 110% above his 3-year rate last season (17.00 against 8.11).

Second-half surge

PP TOI

PP TOI finished the year 67% above where it started (2.09 in the first half, 3.49 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

PPP

Power play points ran at a 24 pace in the second half after 14 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

SOG/60

SOG/60 ran 39% below his 3-year rate last season (4.06 against 6.66).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Juraj SlafkovskyLW,RW · Montreal Canadiens89% match
shared: Blocks, Hits, PIM, A
J.T. MillerC,LW,RW · New York Rangers85% match
shared: Hits, A, Blocks, PIM
Tom WilsonRW · Washington Capitals84% match
shared: Blocks, Hits, PIM, G
Josh NorrisC · Buffalo Sabres84% match
shared: Blocks, PIM, Hits, A

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Vincent Trocheck is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 3
fills: SOG, PPP, G
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 3
fills: PPP, SOG, G
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 3
fills: PPP, SOG, G
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 3
fills: SOG, PPP, G

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · André Tourigny (UTA)

Last year (NYR, traded): Mike Sullivan full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	20.40	20.55	20.62	-0%
5v5 TOI	13.96	14.32	14.95	-4%
PP TOI	3.23	3.08	3.07	+0%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 8 · 21 · 18 · 20

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 20.40: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 13.96: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 3.23: same coach (André Tourigny) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 3.5, Q4 3.5) over the full-year 3.1

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	3.65	4.06	6.66	-39%
G/60	0.50	0.69	0.54	+28%
iSH%	11.84	17.00	8.11	+110%
ixG/60	–	0.58	0.80	-27%
iCF/60	–	9.44	13.06	-28%
iSCF/60	–	5.75	8.00	-28%
iHDCF/60	–	2.69	3.92	-31%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 8 · 21 · 18 · 20

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 17.0% vs a 8.1% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.58 (45th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 11.8% pulls the goal rate ~28% down.

RiskShot volume down 39% (5v5 SOG/60 4.06 vs 6.66) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.66 (1st half) to 0.41 (2nd).

RiskAge 33 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.46	11.78	9.58	+23%
IPP	63.70	64.26	63.02	+2%
1A/60	0.74	0.69	0.91	-24%
2A/60	0.37	0.31	0.41	-24%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 8 · 21 · 18 · 20

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 11.8% vs a 9.6% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.23	3.08	3.07	+0%
PP iSH%	12.63	5.26	14.71	-64%
PP SOG/60	12.32	11.03	13.50	-18%
PP ixG/60	–	2.56	2.78	-8%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 8 · 21 · 18 · 20

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAdd PP1 downside risk to Cooley; hold Trocheck as a steady multi-cat 60-point line. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

ContextPP role steady at ~3.2 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP finishing ran cold (5.3% vs 14.7%) over steady PP chances — PP goals should rebound.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.65	2.75	2.27	+21%
Hits/60	9.94	11.57	8.80	+32%
Blks/60	2.54	2.50	2.71	-8%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 8 · 21 · 18 · 20

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindElite hits volume (89th pct) and role-stable — a bankable hits floor (9.94/60 projected).

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 2.01/60 and 2nd-half 2.32 below the 2.50 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.54/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.71 3-yr mark.

TailwindStrong PIM rate (2.75/60 (79th pct league-wide)) — a banger-league asset.