Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2668 GP	H233 GP	H135 GP	Prev 3234 GP · 3y
TOI	19.86	20.15	18.27	19.57	19.50
PP TOI	3.19	3.14	3.19	3.09	3.59
G	24	20	18	22	32
A	51	44	60	28	57
PTS	75	64	78	51	89
PPP	27	23	35	12	32
SOG	171	174	169	179	194
PIM	54	40	49	31	61
Hits	147	148	123	172	205
Blocks	53	41	56	27	56

Sample: 68 GP · 949 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

11Nick Suzuki114

12Aleksander Barkov113

13Dylan Larkin107

14J.T. Miller102

15Adam Fantilli102

16Tim Stützle100

17Mark Scheifele94

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PPP

Power play points ran at a 35 pace in the second half after 12 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

1A/60

1A/60 finished the year 133% above where it started (0.41 in the first half, 0.96 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Below his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 35% below his 3-year rate last season (8.69 against 13.43).

Above his 3-year rate

PP ixG/60

PP ixG/60 ran 38% above his 3-year rate last season (2.52 against 1.83).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Tim StützleC,LW · Ottawa Senators91% match
shared: A, PPP, Hits, G
Vincent TrocheckC · Utah Mammoth85% match
shared: Hits, A, Blocks, PIM
Juraj SlafkovskyLW,RW · Montreal Canadiens82% match
shared: Hits, Blocks, PIM, PPP
Travis KonecnyRW · Philadelphia Flyers80% match
shared: A, PIM, G, Hits

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where J.T. Miller is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Frank VatranoLW · Anaheim Duckscovers 2
fills: PIM, SOG
Ryan HartmanC,RW · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: PIM, SOG, G
Bobby McMannLW · Seattle Krakencovers 2
fills: SOG, G
Anders LeeLW · Utah Mammothcovers 3
fills: G, SOG, PIM

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Mike Sullivan (NYR)

Last year: Mike Sullivan full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	19.86	20.15	19.50	+3%
5v5 TOI	13.29	13.97	13.40	+4%
PP TOI	3.19	3.14	3.59	-13%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 13 · 16 · 17

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 19.86: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 13.29: role tapered late (Q4 12.2 vs 14.0 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish
PP TOI → 3.19: holds last year's role

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.69	5.87	6.01	-2%
G/60	0.60	0.51	0.81	-37%
iSH%	10.49	8.69	13.43	-35%
ixG/60	–	0.81	0.68	+19%
iCF/60	–	10.30	11.13	-7%
iSCF/60	–	7.26	6.83	+6%
iHDCF/60	–	4.23	2.96	+43%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 13 · 16 · 17

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 8.7% vs 13.4% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 0.81 (78th pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 10.5%, lifting the goal rate ~17%.

RiskAge 33 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.92	8.55	10.26	-17%
IPP	72.44	71.49	75.15	-5%
1A/60	0.77	0.63	0.90	-30%
2A/60	0.51	0.44	0.50	-11%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 13 · 16 · 17

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 8.6%, IPP 71.5%).

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 4.23 vs 2.96) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.19	3.14	3.59	-13%
PP iSH%	15.54	17.17	14.36	+20%
PP SOG/60	10.61	9.84	12.92	-24%
PP ixG/60	–	2.52	1.83	+38%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 13 · 16 · 17

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~3.2 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 2.52 vs 1.83) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.31	1.71	2.76	-38%
Hits/60	7.55	7.39	10.58	-30%
Blks/60	2.31	1.71	2.14	-20%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 13 · 16 · 17

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 4.92/60 and 2nd-half 6.38 below the 7.39 season rate — projected DOWN to 7.55/60, weighting the recent decline over the 10.58 3-yr mark.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 3.19/60 and 2nd-half 2.64 vs a 1.71 season rate (2.14 3-yr) (23rd pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.31/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.06/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.