Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2676 GP	H237 GP	H139 GP	Prev 3202 GP · 3y
TOI	16.58	16.74	16.97	15.65	15.92
PP TOI	1.59	1.78	1.69	1.87	1.51
G	21	25	31	19	19
A	23	22	31	13	25
PTS	44	46	62	32	44
PPP	9	9	7	11	9
SOG	190	180	204	158	195
PIM	76	52	69	36	92
Hits	73	69	58	80	85
Blocks	75	103	109	97	61

Sample: 76 GP · 1,098 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

39Brayden Point62

40Brock Nelson60

41Alex Laferriere57

42Ryan Hartman54

43Nazem Kadri54

44Robert Thomas53

45Dylan Strome53

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

all5v5

Assists ran at a 31 pace in the second half after 13 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

PTS

all5v5

Points ran at a 62 pace in the second half after 32 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

Blks/60

Blks/60 ran 68% above his 3-year rate last season (4.97 against 2.96).

Above his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 18% above his 3-year rate last season (1.78 against 1.51).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Tyson FoersterLW · Philadelphia Flyers89% match
shared: Blocks, PIM
Frank VatranoLW · Anaheim Ducks88% match
shared: Blocks, PIM
Blake ColemanLW,RW · Minnesota Wild85% match
shared: Blocks, PIM
Boone JennerC,LW · Washington Capitals85% match
shared: Blocks, PIM

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Ryan Hartman is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Mark StoneRW · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 2
fills: PPP, A
Mitch MarnerC,LW,RW · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 2
fills: A, PPP
Aleksander BarkovC · Florida Pantherscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, Hits
Jesper BrattRW · New Jersey Devilscovers 2
fills: A, PPP

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · John Hynes (MIN)

Last year: John Hynes full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	16.58	16.74	15.92	+5%
5v5 TOI	14.40	14.45	13.16	+10%
PP TOI	1.59	1.78	1.51	+18%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 21 · 16

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 16.58: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 14.40: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 1.59: role tapered late (Q4 1.1 vs 1.8 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	7.56	7.38	8.42	-12%
G/60	0.76	0.82	0.70	+17%
iSH%	10.05	11.11	8.31	+34%
ixG/60	–	0.97	0.85	+15%
iCF/60	–	16.06	16.81	-4%
iSCF/60	–	8.85	8.26	+7%
iHDCF/60	–	3.77	3.52	+7%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 21 · 16

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.97 (93rd pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.85 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

RiskShot volume down 12% (5v5 SOG/60 7.38 vs 8.42) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.71→1.25 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.13	7.96	8.36	-5%
IPP	69.75	71.91	66.72	+8%
1A/60	0.56	0.55	0.61	-10%
2A/60	0.31	0.33	0.36	-9%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 21 · 16

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 8.0%, IPP 71.9%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.59	1.78	1.51	+18%
PP iSH%	15.90	21.47	11.87	+81%
PP SOG/60	13.20	12.39	14.99	-17%
PP ixG/60	–	2.49	2.41	+3%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 21 · 16

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 1.8→1.6 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 1.1 vs 1.8 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

RiskPP finishing ran hot (21.5% vs 11.9% 3-yr) with flat PP chances (PP ixG/60 2.49) — expect PP goals to cool.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	3.39	2.51	4.58	-45%
Hits/60	3.58	3.39	4.49	-24%
Blks/60	3.93	4.97	2.96	+68%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 21 · 16

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 2.83/60 and 2nd-half 2.69 below the 3.39 season rate — projected DOWN to 3.58/60, weighting the recent decline over the 4.49 3-yr mark.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.80/60 and 2nd-half 4.54 below the 4.97 season rate — projected DOWN to 3.93/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.96 3-yr mark.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.11/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.