Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2663 GP	H229 GP	H134 GP	Prev 3240 GP · 3y
TOI	18.48	18.26	16.89	17.65	19.73
PP TOI	3.75	3.81	3.32	4.22	3.65
G	37	23	23	24	48
A	42	42	44	40	44
PTS	79	65	66	64	91
PPP	25	14	14	14	32
SOG	190	169	153	183	223
PIM	11	18	17	20	10
Hits	16	10	11	10	27
Blocks	40	30	30	30	46

Sample: 63 GP · 847 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

36Morgan Geekie64

37Elias Pettersson63

38Trevor Zegras62

39Brayden Point62

40Brock Nelson60

41Alex Laferriere57

42Ryan Hartman54

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

We project it up

PPP

We’re projecting power play points 79% above last season, 14 to 25.

Second-half surge

1A/60

1A/60 finished the year 88% above where it started (0.94 in the first half, 1.77 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

We project it up

all5v5

We’re projecting goals 61% above last season, 23 to 37.

Second-half surge

ixG/60

ixG/60 finished the year 65% above where it started (0.59 in the first half, 0.98 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Jordan KyrouRW · Washington Capitals86% match
shared: G, A, SOG, PPP
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafs85% match
shared: G, A, PPP, SOG
Kyle ConnorLW · Winnipeg Jets85% match
shared: G, A, PPP, SOG
Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devils83% match
shared: G, A, PPP, SOG

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Brayden Point is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jon Cooper (TBL)

Last year: Jon Cooper full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	18.48	18.26	19.73	-7%
5v5 TOI	13.73	13.45	14.89	-10%
PP TOI	3.75	3.81	3.65	+4%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 14 · 10 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 18.48: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 13.73: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 3.75: established top role held near 3.8 — the late dip (Q4 3.3) reads mostly as rest / season wear, not lost usage

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.45	5.45	7.09	-23%
G/60	0.94	0.85	1.31	-35%
iSH%	17.28	15.60	18.49	-16%
ixG/60	–	0.76	0.90	-16%
iCF/60	–	10.48	12.83	-18%
iSCF/60	–	7.44	9.55	-22%
iHDCF/60	–	3.54	4.83	-27%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 14 · 10 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPositive finishing regression; restore near-elite ceiling with Raddysh gone to Toronto. · Fantasy deep-dive analysis

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 15.6% sits near the 18.5% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.76 (70th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 23% (5v5 SOG/60 5.45 vs 7.09) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.59→0.98 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	13.98	15.36	11.18	+37%
IPP	64.49	62.27	71.24	-13%
1A/60	0.98	1.20	0.69	+74%
2A/60	0.58	0.64	0.59	+9%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 14 · 10 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 15.4% vs a 11.2% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.75	3.81	3.65	+4%
PP iSH%	22.34	14.27	28.19	-49%
PP SOG/60	10.98	10.51	12.39	-15%
PP ixG/60	–	2.58	2.58	-0%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 14 · 10 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~3.7 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP finishing ran cold (14.3% vs 28.2%) over steady PP chances — PP goals should rebound.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.57	0.71	0.34	+111%
Hits/60	0.68	0.50	1.14	-56%
Blks/60	1.73	1.56	1.98	-21%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 14 · 10 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 0.22/60 and 2nd-half 0.83 vs a 0.50 season rate (1.14 3-yr) (2nd pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 0.68/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 1.56/60 (18th pct league-wide) → 1.73 projected.