Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2672 GP	H239 GP	H133 GP	Prev 3243 GP · 3y
TOI	16.49	15.73	14.79	15.24	17.94
PP TOI	2.42	2.17	2.11	2.23	2.71
G	▲32	20	19	22	35
A	▲37	32	39	23	36
PTS	▲69	52	58	45	71
PPP	18	16	21	10	21
SOG	217	197	195	199	257
PIM	16	9	13	5	22
Hits	19	16	14	18	30
Blocks	32	32	31	33	32

Sample: 72 GP · 922 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingRight wing · league-wide (of 273)

55Will Smith49

56Nick Schmaltz49

57Ivan Demidov48

58Jordan Kyrou48

59Vasily Podkolzin47

60Jake DeBrusk45

61Tyler Bertuzzi44

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Baseline is his 2025-26 St. Louis season. Washington rebuilt around Kyrou/Tuch/Protas; 70-pt target.

Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)

TailwindBoost toward a 70-point top-six line in a high-octane WSH offense. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PPP

Power play points ran at a 21 pace in the second half after 10 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it up

all5v5

We’re projecting goals 60% above last season, 20 to 32.

Second-half surge

all5v5

Assists ran at a 39 pace in the second half after 23 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it up

PTS

all5v5

We’re projecting points 33% above last season, 52 to 69.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Kyle ConnorLW · Winnipeg Jets86% match
shared: SOG, G, A, PPP
Brayden PointC · Tampa Bay Lightning86% match
shared: G, A, SOG, PPP
Jared McCannC,LW · Seattle Kraken86% match
shared: SOG, G, PPP
Troy TerryRW · Anaheim Ducks85% match
shared: SOG, A

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Jordan Kyrou is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Spencer Carbery (WSH)

Last year (STL, traded): Jim Montgomery full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	16.49	15.73	17.94	-12%
5v5 TOI	13.25	12.81	14.17	-10%
PP TOI	2.42	2.17	2.71	-20%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 13 · 20 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 16.49: holds last year's role; Boost toward a 70-point top-six line in a high-octane WSH offense.
5v5 TOI → 13.25: holds last year's role; Boost toward a 70-point top-six line in a high-octane WSH offense.
PP TOI → 2.42: upside if he secures a permanent PP1 role in Washington — bet on the PP minutes

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	8.65	8.65	10.06	-14%
G/60	0.88	0.78	1.20	-35%
iSH%	10.14	9.02	11.96	-25%
ixG/60	–	0.87	0.81	+7%
iCF/60	–	18.02	17.99	+0%
iSCF/60	–	10.21	9.85	+4%
iHDCF/60	–	3.19	3.10	+3%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 13 · 20 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPositive finishing regression; ceiling unlocks on a move. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

TailwindSupport scoring baselines for both; Kyrou's scenery change (flagged earlier) is realized in a favorable role. · Analytics research compilation

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 9.0% vs 12.0% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 0.87 (84th pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 10.1%, lifting the goal rate ~12%.

RiskShot volume down 14% (5v5 SOG/60 8.65 vs 10.06) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.88	9.65	10.24	-6%
IPP	71.88	69.23	75.97	-9%
1A/60	0.75	0.78	0.71	+10%
2A/60	0.39	0.33	0.40	-18%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 13 · 20 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 9.7%, IPP 69.2%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.42	2.17	2.71	-20%
PP iSH%	17.82	13.81	18.95	-27%
PP SOG/60	11.27	11.15	12.47	-11%
PP ixG/60	–	1.52	1.61	-6%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 13 · 20 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 2.2→2.4 PP TOI/gp (upside if he secures a permanent PP1 role in Washington — bet on the PP minutes) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP finishing ran cold (13.8% vs 19.0%) over steady PP chances — PP goals should rebound.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.70	0.52	0.91	-43%
Hits/60	0.80	0.72	1.41	-49%
Blks/60	1.61	1.63	1.50	+9%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 13 · 20 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 0.51/60 and 2nd-half 0.49 below the 0.72 season rate — projected DOWN to 0.80/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.41 3-yr mark.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 2.27/60 and 2nd-half 1.60 vs a 1.63 season rate (1.50 3-yr) (21st pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 1.61/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.