Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2682 GP	H240 GP	H142 GP	Prev 3121 GP · 2y
TOI	15.40	15.38	15.42	14.65	12.77
PP TOI	0.95	0.46	0.93	0.02	0.13
G	15	19	19	19	8
A	22	18	23	14	13
PTS	37	37	42	32	21
PPP	8	3	6	0	0
SOG	150	139	161	118	105
PIM	54	63	78	49	39
Hits	221	242	239	245	178
Blocks	58	52	57	47	45

Sample: 82 GP · 1,142 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

46Mason Marchment52

47Patrik Laine51

48Jared McCann49

49Vasily Podkolzin47

50Jake DeBrusk45

51Jack McBain45

52Tyler Bertuzzi44

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Real second-unit power-play minutes. Phil's sheet and the outside read both give him the second unit alongside Savoie and Howard. He ran 11% of Edmonton's power-play time in 2025-26 and the engine carried 0.67 minutes a game forward. Hedged to 0.95, close to his H2 rate of 1.0 and short of a clean second-unit share, because Edmonton's top unit takes over 82% of the available time. Even strength holds at 13.87: he already spent 2025-26 on Draisaitl's wing, so the line assignment carries over. Headline ice time follows at 15.4. Lands about 37 points, between our 34 and the outside 42.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

all5v5

Assists ran at a 23 pace in the second half after 14 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 81% above his 3-year rate last season (14.38 against 7.95).

Second-half surge

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 78 pace in the second half after 49 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it down

all5v5

We’re projecting goals 21% below last season, 19 to 15.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Alex SteevesLW · Boston Bruins96% match
shared: Hits, PIM, Blocks
Jack McBainC,LW · Utah Mammoth93% match
shared: Hits, PIM, Blocks
Dakota JoshuaLW · Toronto Maple Leafs93% match
shared: Hits, PIM, Blocks
Scott LaughtonLW · Los Angeles Kings92% match
shared: Hits, Blocks, PIM

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Vasily Podkolzin is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, G
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 4
fills: SOG, A, PPP, G
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 4
fills: PPP, SOG, G, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Mike Babcock (EDM) new voice

Last year: Kris Knoblauch full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	15.40	15.38	12.77	+20%
5v5 TOI	13.57	13.94	11.95	+17%
PP TOI	0.95	0.46	0.13	+256%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 23 · 19 · 22 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 15.40: Headline ice time reconciled with the power-play bet: even strength holds at 13.87, power play 0.95, penalty kill 0.6.
5v5 TOI → 13.57: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.95: Second unit on Phil's sheet and the outside read, off 11% of Edmonton's power-play time in 2025-26. Hedged to 0.95, between the engine's 0.67 and a clean second-unit share of roughly 1.15, because the top unit takes over 82% of the available minutes.

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.19	6.19	6.31	-2%
G/60	0.66	0.89	0.50	+78%
iSH%	10.65	14.38	7.95	+81%
ixG/60	–	0.69	0.77	-10%
iCF/60	–	10.13	10.99	-8%
iSCF/60	–	6.35	6.84	-7%
iHDCF/60	–	3.31	3.94	-16%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 23 · 19 · 22 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 14.4% vs a 7.9% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.69 (60th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 10.6% pulls the goal rate ~26% down.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.92	10.15	6.66	+52%
IPP	56.84	55.81	59.71	-7%
1A/60	0.42	0.47	0.33	+41%
2A/60	0.48	0.37	0.46	-20%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 23 · 19 · 22 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 10.1% vs a 6.7% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.95	0.46	0.13	+256%
PP iSH%	7.15	7.15	n/a
PP SOG/60	22.46	22.09	0.00
PP ixG/60	–	3.39	0.00

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 23 · 19 · 22 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.5→0.9 PP TOI/gp (Second unit on Phil's sheet and the outside read, off 11% of Edmonton's power-play time in 2025-26. Hedged to 0.95, between the engine's 0.67 and a clean second-unit share of roughly 1.15, because the top unit takes over 82% of the available minutes.) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.85	3.31	2.37	+40%
Hits/60	11.69	12.44	10.58	+18%
Blks/60	2.90	2.52	2.53	-1%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 23 · 19 · 22 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindElite hits volume (90th pct) and role-stable — a bankable hits floor (11.69/60 projected).

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 4.30/60 and 2nd-half 2.94 vs a 2.52 season rate (2.53 3-yr) (50th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.90/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.26/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.