Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2664 GP	H241 GP	H123 GP	Prev 3240 GP · 3y
TOI	14.86	14.35	14.34	13.27	16.16
PP TOI	0.52	0.36	0.54	0.03	1.20
G	15	17	19	15	15
A	17	9	9	9	24
PTS	32	26	28	24	39
PPP	2	3	4	0	5
SOG	133	122	128	108	158
PIM	43	40	46	24	52
Hits	153	154	158	134	167
Blocks	55	54	53	54	54

Sample: 64 GP · 736 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

101Pavel Zacha10

102Erik Haula10

103Igor Chernyshov9

104Scott Laughton8

105Tij Iginla8

106Taylor Hall7

107Oliver Bjorkstrand6

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Below his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 70% below his 3-year rate last season (0.36 against 1.20).

Second-half surge

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 46 pace in the second half after 24 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 78% above his 3-year rate last season (12.58 against 7.08).

Second-half fade

1A/60

1A/60 finished the year 53% below where it started (0.53 in the first half, 0.25 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Lawson CrouseLW,RW · Utah Mammoth93% match
shared: Hits, Blocks, PIM
Vasily PodkolzinLW,RW · Edmonton Oilers92% match
shared: Hits, Blocks, PIM
Jake NeighboursLW,RW · St. Louis Blues92% match
shared: Hits, Blocks, PIM
Will CuylleLW,RW · New York Rangers90% match
shared: Hits, Blocks, PIM

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Scott Laughton is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, G
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 4
fills: SOG, A, PPP, G
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 4
fills: PPP, SOG, G, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Peter Laviolette (LAK) new voice

Last year (TOR, traded): D.J. Smith LAK · pre-trade → Craig Berube TOR · acquired mid-season (small sample) — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	14.86	14.35	16.16	-11%
5v5 TOI	11.91	11.50	12.50	-8%
PP TOI	0.52	0.36	1.20	-70%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 3 · 20 · 21 · 20

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 14.86: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 11.91: new coach (Peter Laviolette) — late-year 12.2 role discounted until the new staff sets usage
PP TOI → 0.52: new coach (Peter Laviolette) — late-year 0.7 role discounted until the new staff sets usage

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.25	6.44	7.04	-9%
G/60	0.66	0.81	0.50	+62%
iSH%	10.49	12.58	7.08	+78%
ixG/60	–	0.73	0.58	+26%
iCF/60	–	12.55	12.48	+1%
iSCF/60	–	6.03	5.72	+5%
iHDCF/60	–	3.42	2.52	+36%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 3 · 20 · 21 · 20

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.73 (64th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.58 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

RiskAge 32 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	7.52	7.50	7.58	-1%
IPP	66.44	68.16	62.23	+10%
1A/60	0.43	0.33	0.48	-31%
2A/60	0.28	0.08	0.40	-80%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 3 · 20 · 21 · 20

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 7.5%, IPP 68.2%).

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 3.42 vs 2.52) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.52	0.36	1.20	-70%
PP iSH%	14.25	20.02	14.25	+41%
PP SOG/60	10.11	13.19	8.72	+51%
PP ixG/60	–	1.72	1.41	+22%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 3 · 20 · 21 · 20

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.4→0.5 PP TOI/gp (new coach (Peter Laviolette) — late-year 0.7 role discounted until the new staff sets usage) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 1.72 vs 1.41) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.07	2.04	2.38	-14%
Hits/60	8.85	9.29	9.36	-1%
Blks/60	2.39	2.36	2.44	-3%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 3 · 20 · 21 · 20

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 9.29/60 (83rd pct league-wide) → 8.85 projected.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 2.36/60 (44th pct league-wide) → 2.39 projected.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.08/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.