Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2678 GP	H237 GP	H141 GP	Prev 3242 GP · 3y
TOI	16.96	16.85	15.55	16.05	17.74
PP TOI	2.91	2.96	2.76	3.13	2.36
G	▼20	32	46	18	19
A	▼32	37	44	30	36
PTS	▼52	68	91	49	55
PPP	15	23	20	26	10
SOG	136	137	153	122	139
PIM	19	29	13	44	19
Hits	71	67	56	77	80
Blocks	26	27	25	29	26

Sample: 78 GP · 933 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

79Tyler Seguin15

80Curtis Douglas13

81Martin Pospisil10

82Pavel Zacha10

83Erik Haula10

84Marco Rossi9

85Tij Iginla8

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Late-season goal heater on 23.1% SH regresses, but engine + light manual hedge, not the old double-fade. Lands ~50-51 pts (between model's over-faded 45 and his 68 pace).

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

all5v5

Goals ran at a 46 pace in the second half after 18 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 150% above where it started (7.90 in the first half, 29.90 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

We project it down

PPP

We’re projecting power play points 35% below last season, 23 to 15.

Above his 3-year rate

PP ixG/60

PP ixG/60 ran 48% above his 3-year rate last season (2.68 against 1.81).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Tyler SeguinC,RW · Dallas Stars86% match
Jack QuinnRW · Buffalo Sabres84% match
Marco RossiC · Vancouver Canucks83% match
Alexis LafrenièreLW,RW · New York Rangers82% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Pavel Zacha is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Frank VatranoLW · Anaheim Duckscovers 2
fills: PIM, SOG
Ryan HartmanC,RW · Minnesota Wildcovers 2
fills: PIM, SOG
Blake ColemanLW,RW · Minnesota Wildcovers 2
fills: SOG, PIM
Sam BennettC · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Marco Sturm (BOS)

Last year: Marco Sturm full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	16.96	16.85	17.74	-5%
5v5 TOI	12.04	11.96	12.90	-7%
PP TOI	2.91	2.96	2.36	+25%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 19 · 19 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 16.96: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 12.04: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 2.91: established top role held near 3.0 — the late dip (Q4 2.7) reads mostly as rest / season wear, not lost usage

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.26	5.21	5.00	+4%
G/60	0.88	0.96	0.69	+39%
iSH%	16.68	18.43	13.83	+33%
ixG/60	–	0.64	0.61	+5%
iCF/60	–	9.32	9.26	+1%
iSCF/60	–	6.94	6.65	+4%
iHDCF/60	–	2.96	3.04	-3%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 19 · 19 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskRegress goals; treat as a 50-point streamer, not a draft target. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.64 (54th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.61 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.53→0.75 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	12.16	13.07	11.55	+13%
IPP	66.70	68.59	64.39	+7%
1A/60	0.66	0.64	0.69	-7%
2A/60	0.71	0.77	0.77	+0%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 19 · 19 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 13.1% vs a 11.5% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.91	2.96	2.36	+25%
PP iSH%	20.51	34.38	10.47	+228%
PP SOG/60	9.24	8.32	11.02	-25%
PP ixG/60	–	2.68	1.81	+48%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 19 · 19 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~2.9 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 2.68 vs 1.81) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.99	1.41	0.87	+63%
Hits/60	3.83	3.66	4.08	-10%
Blks/60	1.14	1.22	1.12	+9%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 19 · 19 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 3.66/60 (45th pct league-wide) → 3.83 projected.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 0.84/60 and 2nd-half 1.08 below the 1.22 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.14/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.12 3-yr mark.