Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2650 GP	H212 GP	H138 GP	Prev 3244 GP · 3y
TOI	11.80	11.82	9.87	12.05	17.53
PP TOI	0.80	0.75	0.75	0.79	2.22
G	14	8	11	8	27
A	13	7	0	7	22
PTS	27	15	11	15	49
PPP	3	2	0	2	11
SOG	146	130	89	147	248
PIM	▲66	66	40	77	78
Hits	▲138	138	123	145	138
Blocks	45	46	30	48	72

Sample: 50 GP · 504 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

96Connor McMichael16

97Cole Perfetti13

98Josh Anderson13

99Frank Vatrano12

100Ross Johnston10

101Pavel Zacha10

102Erik Haula10

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): TOI trimmed to 11.8 / 10.0 EV / 0.8 PP, landing ~27 points against our previous 31. Both outside sources sit below us (26.4 and 21.3 per-82) and the more bearish of the two reads him as a peripheral scorer who posts poor possession numbers against the weakest competition on the team — a read that runs against that source's own tendency to over-project, which makes it the heavier signal. Landed on the less bearish of the two. Depth only. Buyout and trade speculation is deliberately not priced in. HITS and PIM are pinned rather than left to scale with the TOI cut, because his hit rate moves OPPOSITE his ice time: hits60 climbed 3.82 -> 6.18 -> 7.13 -> 8.53 as TOI fell 16.68 -> 11.82. Getting buried made him hit more per minute, so cutting minutes should not cut his hits. 138 / 66 is his own 2025-26 pace at this usage (8.53 and 4.06 per 60), below the outside read of 152 / 79 — and hit-rate swings of this size persist about 80% of the time, so the rate is treated as real.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 131% above where it started (4.80 in the first half, 11.07 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

We project it up

all5v5

We’re projecting goals 75% above last season, 8 to 14.

Below his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 66% below his 3-year rate last season (0.75 against 2.22).

Second-half fade

Blks/60

Blks/60 finished the year 68% below where it started (2.52 in the first half, 0.80 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Ryan HartmanC,RW · Minnesota Wild88% match
shared: Blocks, PIM
Blake ColemanLW,RW · Minnesota Wild87% match
shared: Blocks, Hits, PIM, SOG
Boone JennerC,LW · Washington Capitals85% match
shared: Blocks, Hits, PIM, SOG
Tyson FoersterLW · Philadelphia Flyers83% match
shared: Blocks, PIM, Hits

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Frank Vatrano is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Mark StoneRW · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 3
fills: PPP, A, G
Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 3
fills: PPP, A, G
Mitch MarnerC,LW,RW · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, G
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, G

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Joel Quenneville (ANA)

Last year: Joel Quenneville full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	11.80	11.82	17.53	-33%
5v5 TOI	10.50	10.08	13.14	-23%
PP TOI	0.80	0.75	2.22	-66%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 17 · 3 · 9

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 11.80: Buried in 2025-26 and there is no sign the role comes back. His TOI fell 17.55 -> 11.82, even-strength 14.17 -> 10.26 and PP 2.61 -> 0.75, with shot rate down alongside it. The engine grows him back toward 13.3 on his older body of work; this holds him at the level he actually finished on, in a forward group that got younger and more crowded.
5v5 TOI → 10.50: role tapered late (Q4 8.3 vs 10.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish
PP TOI → 0.80: PP time was cut to a token share; 0.8 sits just above his 0.75 actual instead of the 1.08 the engine carries.

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	8.10	8.45	9.70	-13%
G/60	0.59	0.48	0.83	-42%
iSH%	7.32	5.68	8.51	-33%
ixG/60	–	0.73	0.83	-12%
iCF/60	–	15.00	15.93	-6%
iSCF/60	–	7.14	8.23	-13%
iHDCF/60	–	2.86	3.63	-21%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 17 · 3 · 9

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 5.7% sits near the 8.5% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.73 (64th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 13% (5v5 SOG/60 8.45 vs 9.70) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.82 (1st half) to 0.57 (2nd).

RiskAge 32 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	7.14	6.40	8.34	-23%
IPP	54.27	46.37	67.16	-31%
1A/60	0.27	0.24	0.38	-36%
2A/60	0.41	0.12	0.45	-73%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 17 · 3 · 9

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindIPP 46.4% sits below the 67.2% 3-yr mark — participation should rebound, nudging assists up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.80	0.75	2.22	-66%
PP iSH%	8.01	0.00	13.81	-100%
PP SOG/60	7.40	6.42	16.80	-62%
PP ixG/60	–	2.43	1.93	+26%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 17 · 3 · 9

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~0.8 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP finishing ran cold (0.0% vs 13.8%) over steady PP chances — PP goals should rebound.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	3.62	4.52	3.37	+34%
Hits/60	8.14	9.52	7.15	+33%
Blks/60	2.12	2.38	3.14	-24%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 17 · 3 · 9

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 9.52/60 (84th pct league-wide) → 8.14 projected.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 0.80/60 and 2nd-half 0.80 below the 2.38 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.12/60, weighting the recent decline over the 3.14 3-yr mark.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.24/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.