Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2661 GP	H238 GP	H123 GP	Prev 3202 GP · 3y
TOI	21.20	21.32	20.32	19.49	20.56
PP TOI	3.07	2.95	2.94	2.95	3.37
G	38	36	35	39	39
A	62	67	71	62	59
PTS	100	104	106	101	99
PPP	33	31	35	25	36
SOG	329	306	315	293	341
PIM	18	13	22	0	15
Hits	8	5	3	8	11
Blocks	42	43	49	34	34

Sample: 61 GP · 1,015 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

3Leon Draisaitl176

4Macklin Celebrini160

5Auston Matthews151

6Jack Hughes135

7Tage Thompson121

8Connor Bedard121

9Jack Eichel120

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)

TailwindModest upside tag contingent on top-line deployment; watch, do not yet boost. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PPP

Power play points ran at a 35 pace in the second half after 25 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

BLK

all5v5

Blocks ran at a 49 pace in the second half after 34 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 27% below his 3-year rate last season (0.59 against 0.81).

Top of the league

SOG/60

SOG/60 sits in the 98th percentile league-wide (9.27).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafs89% match
shared: PPP, A, SOG, G
Kyle ConnorLW · Winnipeg Jets87% match
shared: SOG, G, A, PPP
Jason RobertsonLW · Dallas Stars84% match
shared: PPP, G, SOG, A
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kings83% match
shared: A, PPP, SOG, G

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Jack Hughes is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Liam O'BrienLW · Utah Mammothcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Sheldon Keefe (NJD)

Last year: Sheldon Keefe full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	21.20	21.32	20.56	+4%
5v5 TOI	16.79	16.65	15.49	+7%
PP TOI	3.07	2.95	3.37	-13%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 6 · 20 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 21.20: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 16.79: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 3.07: holds last year's role; Positive PP regression; raise ceiling toward 90 with Hughes healthy.

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	9.27	9.27	10.64	-13%
G/60	1.00	1.06	1.09	-3%
iSH%	10.77	11.43	10.29	+11%
ixG/60	–	0.95	1.02	-7%
iCF/60	–	17.96	19.25	-7%
iSCF/60	–	11.22	10.37	+8%
iHDCF/60	–	3.90	3.54	+10%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 6 · 20 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 11.4% sits near the 10.3% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.95 (91st pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 13% (5v5 SOG/60 9.27 vs 10.64) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.81→0.96 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.66	8.24	9.28	-11%
IPP	78.68	81.50	74.54	+9%
1A/60	0.68	0.59	0.81	-27%
2A/60	0.38	0.41	0.44	-7%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 6 · 20 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 8.2%, IPP 81.5%).

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 3.90 vs 3.54) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.07	2.95	3.37	-13%
PP iSH%	12.11	9.12	12.95	-30%
PP SOG/60	15.01	14.69	16.30	-10%
PP ixG/60	–	1.69	1.87	-10%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 6 · 20 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPositive PP regression; raise ceiling toward 90 with Hughes healthy. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

ContextPP role steady at ~3.1 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.60	0.47	0.54	-12%
Hits/60	0.16	0.12	0.38	-69%
Blks/60	1.81	1.65	1.56	+6%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 6 · 20 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 0.00/60 and 2nd-half 0.10 below the 0.12 season rate — projected DOWN to 0.16/60, weighting the recent decline over the 0.38 3-yr mark.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 2.61/60 and 2nd-half 1.86 vs a 1.65 season rate (1.56 3-yr) (21st pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 1.81/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.