Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2681 GP	H241 GP	H140 GP	Prev 3225 GP · 3y
TOI	19.15	19.24	18.44	17.83	18.50
PP TOI	3.42	3.51	3.54	3.47	3.01
G	44	41	41	40	44
A	40	42	48	35	37
PTS	84	82	89	75	81
PPP	25	24	30	18	24
SOG	281	273	255	292	285
PIM	38	36	32	39	43
Hits	84	86	83	89	74
Blocks	38	49	53	44	31

Sample: 81 GP · 1,179 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

4Macklin Celebrini160

5Auston Matthews151

6Jack Hughes135

7Tage Thompson121

8Connor Bedard121

9Jack Eichel120

10Wyatt Johnston118

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PPP

Power play points ran at a 30 pace in the second half after 18 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

all5v5

Assists ran at a 48 pace in the second half after 35 in the first, per 82 games.

Top of the league

PP TOI

PP TOI sits in the 96th percentile league-wide (3.51).

We project it down

BLK

all5v5

We’re projecting blocks 22% below last season, 49 to 38.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Filip ForsbergLW · Nashville Predators91% match
shared: SOG, G, PPP, A
Bo HorvatC · New York Islanders90% match
shared: SOG, G, PPP
John TavaresC · Toronto Maple Leafs90% match
shared: G, SOG, PPP, A
Dylan GuentherRW · Utah Mammoth87% match
shared: SOG, G, PPP, A

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Tage Thompson is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Lindy Ruff (BUF)

Last year: Lindy Ruff full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	19.15	19.24	18.50	+4%
5v5 TOI	14.71	14.57	13.80	+6%
PP TOI	3.42	3.51	3.01	+17%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 24 · 17

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 19.15: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 14.71: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 3.42: holds last year's role

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	9.17	9.31	10.19	-9%
G/60	1.45	1.58	1.43	+10%
iSH%	15.87	16.97	14.08	+21%
ixG/60	–	1.01	0.94	+8%
iCF/60	–	18.51	19.77	-6%
iSCF/60	–	8.95	10.11	-11%
iHDCF/60	–	3.61	4.04	-11%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 24 · 17

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 1.01 (95th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.94 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.84	11.09	10.54	+5%
IPP	76.01	78.00	73.58	+6%
1A/60	0.61	0.61	0.73	-17%
2A/60	0.26	0.15	0.37	-59%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 24 · 17

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 11.1%, IPP 78.0%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.42	3.51	3.01	+17%
PP iSH%	14.42	9.10	18.27	-50%
PP SOG/60	14.65	13.95	17.46	-20%
PP ixG/60	–	2.00	1.68	+19%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 24 · 17

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~3.4 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP finishing ran cold (9.1% vs 18.3%) over steady PP chances — PP goals should rebound.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.41	1.47	1.78	-17%
Hits/60	3.92	4.07	3.69	+10%
Blks/60	1.85	2.09	1.49	+40%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 24 · 17

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 4.07/60 (50th pct league-wide) → 3.92 projected.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 2.09/60 (35th pct league-wide) → 1.85 projected.