Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2679 GP	H237 GP	H142 GP	Prev 3148 GP · 3y
TOI	17.70	17.40	16.70	16.29	15.91
PP TOI	3.30	3.26	3.02	3.46	2.91
G	37	42	48	36	28
A	39	34	36	32	33
PTS	76	76	84	69	61
PPP	29	25	31	20	27
SOG	253	251	238	263	209
PIM	28	29	35	23	28
Hits	69	68	63	73	57
Blocks	41	29	35	24	41

Sample: 79 GP · 1,023 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingRight wing · league-wide (of 273)

14Juraj Slafkovsky104

15Cutter Gauthier104

16J.T. Miller102

17Dylan Guenther102

18William Nylander93

19Timo Meier92

20Mitch Marner88

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 106% above his 3-year rate last season (16.75 against 8.12).

Second-half surge

PPP

Power play points ran at a 31 pace in the second half after 20 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

1A/60

1A/60 finished the year 52% below where it started (1.02 in the first half, 0.48 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

We project it up

BLK

all5v5

We’re projecting blocks 41% above last season, 29 to 41.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Alex DeBrincatLW · Detroit Red Wings90% match
shared: SOG, PPP, G, A
Bo HorvatC · New York Islanders88% match
shared: SOG, G, PPP
John TavaresC · Toronto Maple Leafs88% match
shared: SOG, G, PPP, A
Tage ThompsonC,RW · Buffalo Sabres87% match
shared: SOG, G, PPP, A

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Dylan Guenther is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · André Tourigny (UTA)

Last year: André Tourigny full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	17.70	17.40	15.91	+9%
5v5 TOI	13.59	12.96	11.88	+9%
PP TOI	3.30	3.26	2.91	+12%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 19 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 17.70: holds last year's role; age 23 riser — small growth bias
5v5 TOI → 13.59: holds last year's role; age 23 riser — small growth bias
PP TOI → 3.30: established top role held near 3.3 — the late dip (Q4 3.4) reads mostly as rest / season wear, not lost usage; age 23 riser — small growth bias

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	10.08	9.79	8.39	+17%
G/60	1.36	1.64	0.68	+141%
iSH%	13.47	16.75	8.12	+106%
ixG/60	–	1.00	0.69	+44%
iCF/60	–	21.39	17.94	+19%
iSCF/60	–	10.49	8.87	+18%
iHDCF/60	–	4.28	2.35	+82%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 19 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 1.00 (94th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.69 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindShot volume up 17% (5v5 SOG/60 9.79 vs 8.39) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

TailwindAge 23 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.72	11.10	8.98	+24%
IPP	75.50	76.83	67.00	+15%
1A/60	0.67	0.76	0.54	+40%
2A/60	0.34	0.12	0.51	-76%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 19 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 11.1% vs a 9.0% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 21.39 vs 17.94) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 4.28 vs 2.35) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.30	3.26	2.91	+12%
PP iSH%	20.72	15.79	24.29	-35%
PP SOG/60	13.40	13.30	14.34	-7%
PP ixG/60	–	1.97	1.72	+15%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 19 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~3.3 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP finishing ran cold (15.8% vs 24.3%) over steady PP chances — PP goals should rebound.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.56	1.64	1.50	+9%
Hits/60	3.49	3.63	3.28	+11%
Blks/60	1.77	1.41	2.32	-39%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 19 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 3.63/60 (45th pct league-wide) → 3.49 projected.

RiskBottom-of-league blocks (14th pct) — no meaningful floor here, don't draft for it.