Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2682 GP	H241 GP	H141 GP	Prev 3200 GP · 3y
TOI	18.86	18.54	17.55	16.84	16.59
PP TOI	3.74	3.30	3.66	2.93	2.69
G	28	30	32	28	17
A	44	43	54	32	28
PTS	72	73	86	60	45
PPP	27	28	30	26	11
SOG	190	181	192	170	134
PIM	45	52	28	76	55
Hits	115	105	82	128	163
Blocks	76	78	79	77	64

Sample: 82 GP · 1,137 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

7Jake Guentzel117

8Andrei Svechnikov113

9Filip Forsberg111

10Juraj Slafkovsky104

11Cutter Gauthier104

12J.T. Miller102

13Alex DeBrincat100

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

1A/60

1A/60 finished the year 101% above where it started (0.63 in the first half, 1.27 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

all5v5

Assists ran at a 54 pace in the second half after 32 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

PP ixG/60

PP ixG/60 ran 57% above his 3-year rate last season (2.64 against 1.68).

Above his 3-year rate

PP SOG/60

PP SOG/60 ran 46% above his 3-year rate last season (11.55 against 7.91).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Josh NorrisC · Buffalo Sabres91% match
shared: Blocks, PIM, Hits, A
Vincent TrocheckC · Utah Mammoth89% match
shared: Blocks, Hits, PIM, A
Elias LindholmC · Boston Bruins84% match
shared: Blocks, PPP, A
J.T. MillerC,LW,RW · New York Rangers82% match
shared: Hits, Blocks, PIM, PPP

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Juraj Slafkovsky is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 1
fills: SOG
Kyle ConnorLW · Winnipeg Jetscovers 1
fills: SOG
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 1
fills: SOG
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 1
fills: SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Martin St. Louis (MTL)

Last year: Martin St. Louis full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	18.86	18.54	16.59	+12%
5v5 TOI	14.34	13.87	13.42	+3%
PP TOI	3.74	3.30	2.69	+22%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 20

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 18.86: holds last year's role; age 22 riser — small growth bias
5v5 TOI → 14.34: holds last year's role; age 22 riser — small growth bias
PP TOI → 3.74: same coach (Martin St. Louis) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 3.7, Q4 3.8) over the full-year 3.3; age 22 riser — small growth bias; Raise baseline toward 80 points with a strong hits floor.

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.03	5.85	5.43	+8%
G/60	0.64	0.58	0.65	-11%
iSH%	10.68	9.91	11.93	-17%
ixG/60	–	0.76	0.72	+6%
iCF/60	–	13.13	11.36	+16%
iSCF/60	–	7.38	7.22	+2%
iHDCF/60	–	3.16	3.56	-11%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 20

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 9.9% vs 11.9% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 0.76 (70th pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 10.7%, lifting the goal rate ~11%.

TailwindAge 22 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	11.23	11.81	9.65	+22%
IPP	63.12	63.00	63.58	-1%
1A/60	0.79	0.95	0.51	+85%
2A/60	0.61	0.53	0.60	-12%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 20

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 11.8% vs a 9.7% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 13.13 vs 11.36) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.74	3.30	2.69	+22%
PP iSH%	21.90	28.83	16.88	+71%
PP SOG/60	11.62	11.55	7.91	+46%
PP ixG/60	–	2.64	1.68	+57%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 20

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindRaise baseline toward 80 points with a strong hits floor. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

TailwindPP role projected up: 3.3→3.7 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Martin St. Louis) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 3.7, Q4 3.8) over the full-year 3.3; age 22 riser — small growth bias; Raise baseline toward 80 points with a strong hits floor.) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 2.64 vs 1.68) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.09	2.53	2.37	+7%
Hits/60	5.80	5.49	8.68	-37%
Blks/60	3.67	3.90	3.33	+17%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 20

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindRaise baseline toward 80 points with a strong hits floor. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 4.11/60 and 2nd-half 4.33 below the 5.49 season rate — projected DOWN to 5.80/60, weighting the recent decline over the 8.68 3-yr mark.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 3.90/60 (79th pct league-wide) → 3.67 projected.

TailwindStrong PIM rate (2.53/60 (76th pct league-wide)) — a banger-league asset.