Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2679 GP	H238 GP	H141 GP	Prev 3195 GP · 3y
TOI	17.03	16.99	16.22	15.77	17.38
PP TOI	2.95	2.97	2.94	3.01	2.99
G	▲28	32	41	24	26
A	▲42	40	45	36	39
PTS	▲70	73	86	60	65
PPP	25	30	43	18	21
SOG	214	212	187	234	222
PIM	77	68	75	62	79
Hits	167	154	174	135	181
Blocks	23	17	17	16	25

Sample: 79 GP · 1,027 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

5Jack Hughes135

6Matt Boldy130

7Jake Guentzel117

8Andrei Svechnikov113

9Filip Forsberg111

10Juraj Slafkovsky104

11Cutter Gauthier104

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Both outside reads land 74.7 and 76.4 per-84; we printed 67.6, the widest consensus-against-us gap on the roster. Bumped to ~70 - anchored on the LOW external number, not the high one, because the skeptical read (never been consistent) is corroborated by his own 2024-25 row in our DB. Rate bet only: 5v5 TOI is flat at 13.01 with no Q4 growth, so there is no minutes story to buy. Counterweights held in mind: injury-risk flag and 69 PIM.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PPP

Power play points ran at a 43 pace in the second half after 18 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 115% above where it started (6.79 in the first half, 14.59 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Bottom of the league

Blks/60

Blks/60 sits in the 2th percentile league-wide (0.93).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Brad MarchandLW,RW · Florida Panthers87% match
shared: PIM, G, PPP, SOG
Matthew TkachukRW · Florida Panthers85% match
shared: PIM, PPP, G, A
Brady TkachukLW · Florida Panthers85% match
shared: PIM, Hits, PPP, G
Adrian KempeRW · Los Angeles Kings82% match
shared: G, PIM, SOG, Hits

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Andrei Svechnikov is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 2
fills: SOG, A
Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 2
fills: SOG, A
Patrick KaneRW · Chicago Blackhawkscovers 2
fills: A, SOG
Kyle ConnorLW · Winnipeg Jetscovers 2
fills: SOG, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Rod Brind'Amour (CAR)

Last year: Rod Brind'Amour full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	17.03	16.99	17.38	-2%
5v5 TOI	13.09	13.01	13.44	-3%
PP TOI	2.95	2.97	2.99	-0%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 22 · 16

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 17.03: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 13.09: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 2.95: established top role held near 3.0 — the late dip (Q4 2.7) reads mostly as rest / season wear, not lost usage

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	8.14	8.29	8.40	-1%
G/60	0.81	0.88	0.76	+16%
iSH%	10.01	10.62	9.01	+18%
ixG/60	–	0.96	0.91	+5%
iCF/60	–	17.22	17.41	-1%
iSCF/60	–	9.46	8.61	+10%
iHDCF/60	–	3.74	3.80	-2%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 22 · 16

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.96 (92nd pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.91 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 1.09 (1st half) to 0.81 (2nd).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.08	8.14	8.00	+2%
IPP	69.14	67.48	71.30	-5%
1A/60	0.75	0.76	0.73	+4%
2A/60	0.35	0.29	0.44	-33%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 22 · 16

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 8.1%, IPP 67.5%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.95	2.97	2.99	-0%
PP iSH%	17.13	22.19	16.27	+36%
PP SOG/60	13.57	13.79	12.67	+9%
PP ixG/60	–	2.25	2.16	+4%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 22 · 16

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~3.0 PP TOI/gp.

RiskPP finishing ran hot (22.2% vs 16.3% 3-yr) with flat PP chances (PP ixG/60 2.25) — expect PP goals to cool.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	4.22	3.62	3.53	+3%
Hits/60	9.13	8.47	9.50	-11%
Blks/60	1.05	0.93	1.23	-25%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 22 · 16

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 10.81/60 and 2nd-half 9.62 vs a 8.47 season rate (9.50 3-yr) (81st pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 9.13/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBottom-of-league blocks (2nd pct) — no meaningful floor here, don't draft for it.

TailwindStrong PIM rate (3.62/60 (87th pct league-wide)) — a banger-league asset.