Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2652 GP	H213 GP	H139 GP	Prev 3226 GP · 3y
TOI	17.00	17.73	14.55	17.33	18.67
PP TOI	2.50	3.71	3.45	3.80	3.31
G	27	43	19	51	26
A	34	43	25	48	41
PTS	61	85	44	99	67
PPP	18	32	25	34	24
SOG	190	218	175	232	212
PIM	66	60	47	64	78
Hits	66	57	22	68	101
Blocks	23	25	3	33	32

Sample: 52 GP · 616 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

38Morgan Geekie64

39Gabriel Landeskog63

40Trevor Zegras62

41Brad Marchand61

42Kiefer Sherwood60

43Alex Laferriere57

44A.J. Greer55

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Second-unit power play, priced as a demotion instead of a disappearance. The engine had him at 1.60, which is less than half the 3.18 to 3.71 he has run every year for 4 seasons, and his 2025-26 quarters held at 3.82, 3.79 and 3.45 before his season ended. Barkov's return and Brady Tkachuk's arrival do push him down, so 2.5 sits where the best player on a second unit lands. The finishing read is unchanged and stays the reason we sit under the outside 68: his 5v5 goals per 60 hit 1.65 in a 52-game age-37 season against a 0.65 to 0.86 career band, which is a 19.5% shooting percentage against a career norm near 10%. Restoring the minutes without restoring that finishing is the honest split. Even strength comes back up too, 12.97 to 13.4, because the engine anchored on a 52-game season that ended early while his 3 prior years all sat near 13.8, and that puts headline ice time at 17.0.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 92% above his 3-year rate last season (19.50 against 10.14).

Second-half fade

all5v5

Goals ran at a 19 pace in the second half after 51 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

HITS

all5v5

Hits ran at a 22 pace in the second half after 68 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it down

PPP

We’re projecting power play points 44% below last season, 32 to 18.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Andrei SvechnikovLW,RW · Carolina Hurricanes87% match
shared: PIM, G, PPP, SOG
Kevin FialaLW,RW · Los Angeles Kings87% match
shared: PPP, SOG, G, PIM
Adrian KempeRW · Los Angeles Kings87% match
shared: G, SOG, PIM, A
Nazem KadriC · Colorado Avalanche86% match
shared: SOG, PPP, A, PIM

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Brad Marchand is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Ivan BarbashevLW · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 2
fills: Hits, A
Dylan HollowayLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: Hits, A
Matthew KniesLW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, A
Vincent TrocheckC · Utah Mammothcovers 2
fills: Hits, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Paul Maurice (FLA)

Last year: Paul Maurice full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	17.00	17.73	18.67	-5%
5v5 TOI	12.30	11.87	12.75	-7%
PP TOI	2.50	3.71	3.31	+12%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 20 · 13 · 0

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 17.00: Headline ice time reconciled with the components: 13.4 at even strength, 2.5 on the power play, 1.07 on the penalty kill. The engine's own 17.49 implied over 4 power-play minutes, which its own PP projection contradicted.
5v5 TOI → 12.30: Tracks the even-strength bet, holding the ~1.07 gap between EV and 5v5 he has run every season.
PP TOI → 2.50: The engine's 1.60 cuts too deep. He has never been below 3.18 on the power play in 4 seasons (3.42, 3.33, 3.18, 3.71), and his 2025-26 quarters held at 3.82, 3.79 and 3.45. A demotion is right, since Barkov returns and Brady Tkachuk arrives, and 2.5 prices it as the best player on the second unit rather than a man off the power play altogether.

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	7.37	8.46	7.41	+14%
G/60	1.19	1.65	0.75	+119%
iSH%	15.95	19.50	10.14	+92%
ixG/60	–	0.95	0.77	+24%
iCF/60	–	16.92	14.32	+18%
iSCF/60	–	8.85	8.18	+8%
iHDCF/60	–	4.77	3.69	+29%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 20 · 13 · 0

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskRegress goals hard toward career iSH% and discount for lower TOI and depth deployment.

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.95 (91st pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.77 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindShot volume up 14% (5v5 SOG/60 8.46 vs 7.41) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 1.09 (1st half) to 0.41 (2nd).

RiskAge 38 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.00	10.72	8.73	+23%
IPP	73.87	78.82	65.22	+21%
1A/60	0.55	0.49	0.69	-29%
2A/60	0.32	0.39	0.31	+25%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 20 · 13 · 0

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskAssists projected DOWN: on-ice SH% 10.7% (3-yr 8.7%) AND IPP 78.8% (3-yr 65.2%) both ran hot — team finishing + participation luck stacked. Regressing both trims the assist rate ~7%.

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 16.92 vs 14.32) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 4.77 vs 3.69) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.50	3.71	3.31	+12%
PP iSH%	15.49	18.71	13.16	+42%
PP SOG/60	10.91	9.94	12.18	-18%
PP ixG/60	–	1.92	1.83	+5%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 20 · 13 · 0

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskCut PPP toward a PP2 rate; his 54-point pace overstates repeatable value.

RiskPP role projected down: 3.7→2.5 PP TOI/gp (The engine's 1.60 cuts too deep. He has never been below 3.18 on the power play in 4 seasons (3.42, 3.33, 3.18, 3.71), and his 2025-26 quarters held at 3.82, 3.79 and 3.45. A demotion is right, since Barkov returns and Brady Tkachuk arrives, and 2.5 prices it as the best player on the second unit rather than a man off the power play altogether.) — the biggest PPP lever.

RiskPP finishing ran hot (18.7% vs 13.2% 3-yr) with flat PP chances (PP ixG/60 1.92) — expect PP goals to cool.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.79	2.53	3.54	-29%
Hits/60	2.89	3.21	4.75	-32%
Blks/60	0.89	1.26	1.38	-8%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 20 · 13 · 0

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 1.38/60 and 2nd-half 1.38 below the 3.21 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.89/60, weighting the recent decline over the 4.75 3-yr mark.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 0.00/60 and 2nd-half 0.00 below the 1.26 season rate — projected DOWN to 0.89/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.38 3-yr mark.

TailwindStrong PIM rate (2.53/60 (76th pct league-wide)) — a banger-league asset.