Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2679 GP	H241 GP	H138 GP	Prev 3158 GP · 2y
TOI	19.03	18.79	16.81	18.56	16.07
PP TOI	2.64	2.69	2.55	2.85	1.51
G	▲26	24	21	27	23
A	▲42	45	41	48	25
PTS	▲68	69	63	75	48
PPP	18	17	24	9	9
SOG	143	145	117	176	139
PIM	39	30	30	30	46
Hits	163	158	115	204	182
Blocks	29	33	25	42	37

Sample: 79 GP · 1,092 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

34Nikolaj Ehlers66

35William Eklund66

36Owen Tippett66

37Matthew Knies64

38Morgan Geekie64

39Gabriel Landeskog63

40Trevor Zegras62

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Modest bump for a fully healthy year; keeps his big hit floor (170 per-82). Normal injury risk still applies.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PPP

Power play points ran at a 24 pace in the second half after 9 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 78% above his 3-year rate last season (2.69 against 1.51).

Above his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 90% above his 3-year rate last season (0.93 against 0.49).

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 47% above where it started (10.38 in the first half, 15.30 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Logan CooleyC · Utah Mammoth83% match
Mason McTavishC · St. Louis Blues82% match
shared: Hits
Alexis LafrenièreLW,RW · New York Rangers81% match
shared: Hits
Dylan HollowayLW · St. Louis Blues81% match
shared: Hits, A, G

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Matthew Knies is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Clayton KellerLW · Utah Mammothcovers 2
fills: PPP, SOG
Evgeni MalkinC,LW · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 3
fills: PIM, PPP, SOG
Nikita KucherovRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 3
fills: PPP, SOG, PIM
Connor BedardC · Chicago Blackhawkscovers 3
fills: SOG, PPP, PIM

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jim Hiller (TOR) new voice

Last year: Craig Berube full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	19.03	18.79	16.07	+17%
5v5 TOI	13.64	13.83	13.21	+5%
PP TOI	2.64	2.69	1.51	+78%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 19 · 23 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 19.03: holds last year's role; age 23 riser — small growth bias; Cap PPP upside; treat 5v5 role as the safer part of his line.; Raise ceiling toward 30G/75pts if healthy and promoted.
5v5 TOI → 13.64: role tapered late (Q4 12.5 vs 13.8 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish; age 23 riser — small growth bias; Cap PPP upside; treat 5v5 role as the safer part of his line.; Raise ceiling toward 30G/75pts if healthy and promoted.
PP TOI → 2.64: established top role held near 2.7 — the late dip (Q4 2.7) reads mostly as rest / season wear, not lost usage; age 23 riser — small growth bias; Cap PPP upside; treat 5v5 role as the safer part of his line.

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.15	4.39	6.44	-32%
G/60	0.62	0.55	1.07	-48%
iSH%	14.87	12.53	16.57	-24%
ixG/60	–	0.61	0.80	-24%
iCF/60	–	8.90	10.69	-17%
iSCF/60	–	6.64	7.53	-12%
iHDCF/60	–	3.68	4.97	-26%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 19 · 23 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindRaise ceiling toward 30G/75pts if healthy and promoted. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

TailwindDo not discount his production for the injury; a fully healthy season is a modest upside case, with normal injury-risk noted. · Phil (context note, media synthesis)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 12.5% sits near the 16.6% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.61 (48th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 32% (5v5 SOG/60 4.39 vs 6.44) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

TailwindAge 23 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.28	10.16	10.67	-5%
IPP	78.63	86.36	62.94	+37%
1A/60	0.72	0.93	0.49	+90%
2A/60	0.47	0.60	0.40	+48%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 19 · 23 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskIPP spiked to 86.4% vs 62.9% 3-yr — point participation this far above baseline rarely holds; assist share likely gives a little back.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.64	2.69	1.51	+78%
PP iSH%	15.09	14.97	15.17	-1%
PP SOG/60	10.84	11.29	8.31	+36%
PP ixG/60	–	2.53	2.14	+18%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 19 · 23 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskCap PPP upside; treat 5v5 role as the safer part of his line.

ContextPP role steady at ~2.6 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 2.53 vs 2.14) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.81	1.48	2.24	-34%
Hits/60	8.27	7.96	9.72	-18%
Blks/60	1.17	1.37	1.70	-19%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 19 · 23 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 7.19/60 and 2nd-half 6.28 below the 7.96 season rate — projected DOWN to 8.27/60, weighting the recent decline over the 9.72 3-yr mark.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 0.27/60 and 2nd-half 0.90 below the 1.37 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.17/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.70 3-yr mark.