Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2676 GP	H239 GP	H137 GP	Prev 3241 GP · 3y
TOI	20.22	20.34	18.74	19.12	20.99
PP TOI	4.17	4.26	3.97	4.56	3.97
G	40	48	50	45	38
A	90	93	96	90	91
PTS	130	140	146	135	129
PPP	46	40	40	40	51
SOG	252	249	248	251	286
PIM	45	54	55	53	35
Hits	38	39	45	32	44
Blocks	32	31	32	31	34

Sample: 76 GP · 1,111 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingRight wing · league-wide (of 273)

1Nikita Kucherov177

2David Pastrnak162

3Matthew Tkachuk155

4Tom Wilson133

5Matt Boldy130

6Mikko Rantanen126

7Martin Necas123

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 50% above where it started (14.03 in the first half, 21.10 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

HITS

all5v5

Hits ran at a 45 pace in the second half after 32 in the first, per 82 games.

Top of the league

PP TOI

PP TOI sits in the 99th percentile league-wide (4.26).

Below his 3-year rate

PP ixG/60

PP ixG/60 ran 29% below his 3-year rate last season (1.12 against 1.58).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Leon DraisaitlC,LW · Edmonton Oilers94% match
shared: PPP, A, G, SOG
Connor McDavidC · Edmonton Oilers90% match
shared: A, PPP, SOG, G
Kirill KaprizovLW · Minnesota Wild89% match
shared: PPP, SOG, G, A
Connor BedardC · Chicago Blackhawks87% match
shared: A, SOG, PPP, G

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Nikita Kucherov is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jacob MelansonRW · Seattle Krakencovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Garnet HathawayRW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jon Cooper (TBL)

Last year: Jon Cooper full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	20.22	20.34	20.99	-3%
5v5 TOI	14.72	14.63	15.76	-7%
PP TOI	4.17	4.26	3.97	+7%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 19 · 21 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 20.22: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 14.72: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 4.17: established top role held near 4.3 — the late dip (Q4 3.6) reads mostly as rest / season wear, not lost usage

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	7.80	8.04	8.48	-5%
G/60	1.14	1.35	0.95	+43%
iSH%	14.65	16.79	11.15	+51%
ixG/60	–	0.83	0.75	+10%
iCF/60	–	18.94	17.88	+6%
iSCF/60	–	8.69	9.05	-4%
iHDCF/60	–	2.81	3.21	-12%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 19 · 21 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.83 (79th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.75 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

RiskAge 33 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	12.66	14.05	11.20	+25%
IPP	78.70	80.17	76.14	+5%
1A/60	1.26	1.35	1.14	+19%
2A/60	0.82	1.03	0.74	+39%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 19 · 21 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 14.1% vs a 11.2% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	4.17	4.26	3.97	+7%
PP iSH%	12.95	14.51	12.95	+12%
PP SOG/60	11.16	10.20	14.05	-27%
PP ixG/60	–	1.12	1.58	-29%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 19 · 21 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~4.2 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.25	1.40	1.22	+15%
Hits/60	1.63	1.67	1.74	-4%
Blks/60	1.41	1.40	1.49	-6%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 19 · 21 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 1.53/60 and 2nd-half 2.06 vs a 1.67 season rate (1.74 3-yr) (19th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 1.63/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 0.88/60 and 2nd-half 1.43 below the 1.40 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.41/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.49 3-yr mark.