Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2676 GP	H233 GP	H143 GP	Prev 3238 GP · 3y
TOI	20.40	20.57	18.49	19.80	19.25
PP TOI	3.82	3.88	3.53	4.15	3.64
G	▲34	45	42	48	30
A	▲52	46	49	45	41
PTS	▲86	92	91	93	71
PPP	▲33	32	40	27	25
SOG	266	273	271	275	260
PIM	44	32	21	41	48
Hits	60	65	80	53	51
Blocks	55	63	62	63	43

Sample: 76 GP · 1,036 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

3Kirill Kaprizov151

4Jason Robertson142

5Jack Hughes135

6Matt Boldy130

7Jake Guentzel117

8Andrei Svechnikov113

9Filip Forsberg111

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): His power play minutes are already right, so this is a scoring rate call, and the goals and the assists pull in opposite directions. At even strength his shooting percentage last season matched 2022-23 and 2023-24, which makes 2024-25 the odd year rather than last season the fluke, and his chance quality hit a career high. On the power play he shot less and created fewer chances than in any prior year, so that finishing gets pulled back. The assists are where the real gain sits. Quinn Hughes arrived at midseason, and Boldy's power play primary assist rate went from 0.61 per 60 before him to 4.78 and 3.34 in the 2 quarters after, so last year's headline rate blends 28 games without the best passing defenseman in the league and 33 games with him.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PP SOG/60

PP SOG/60 finished the year 96% above where it started (9.08 in the first half, 17.77 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

PPP

Power play points ran at a 40 pace in the second half after 27 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it down

all5v5

We’re projecting goals 24% below last season, 45 to 34.

Top of the league

PP TOI

PP TOI sits in the 98th percentile league-wide (3.88).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Macklin CelebriniC · San Jose Sharks93% match
shared: SOG, G, PPP, Blocks
Jake GuentzelLW,RW · Tampa Bay Lightning89% match
shared: G, PPP, SOG, A
Nathan MacKinnonC · Colorado Avalanche89% match
shared: SOG, G, PPP, A
Bryan RustRW · Pittsburgh Penguins85% match
shared: Blocks, G, SOG, PPP

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Matt Boldy is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Garnet HathawayRW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · John Hynes (MIN)

Last year: John Hynes full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	20.40	20.57	19.25	+7%
5v5 TOI	13.51	13.64	14.16	-4%
PP TOI	3.82	3.88	3.64	+7%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 17 · 16

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 20.40: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 13.51: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 3.82: established top role held near 3.9 — the late dip (Q4 3.4) reads mostly as rest / season wear, not lost usage

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	9.26	9.26	8.63	+7%
G/60	1.17	1.27	0.93	+37%
iSH%	12.59	13.71	10.75	+28%
ixG/60	–	1.06	0.86	+23%
iCF/60	–	18.46	17.37	+6%
iSCF/60	–	9.49	9.25	+3%
iHDCF/60	–	4.57	3.74	+22%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 17 · 16

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 1.06 (97th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.86 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 1.17 (1st half) to 0.90 (2nd).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.87	10.73	8.52	+26%
IPP	72.92	72.96	72.84	+0%
1A/60	0.63	0.64	0.57	+12%
2A/60	0.45	0.41	0.41	+0%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 17 · 16

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 10.7% vs a 8.5% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 4.57 vs 3.74) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.82	3.88	3.64	+7%
PP iSH%	12.01	17.47	10.48	+67%
PP SOG/60	14.43	12.82	15.88	-19%
PP ixG/60	–	1.83	2.11	-13%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 17 · 16

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~3.8 PP TOI/gp.

RiskPP finishing ran hot (17.5% vs 10.5% 3-yr) with flat PP chances (PP ixG/60 1.83) — expect PP goals to cool.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.99	0.93	2.17	-57%
Hits/60	3.07	3.30	2.39	+38%
Blks/60	2.27	2.43	1.87	+30%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 17 · 16

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 3.10/60 and 2nd-half 4.23 vs a 3.30 season rate (2.39 3-yr) (42nd pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 3.07/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 3.10/60 and 2nd-half 2.49 vs a 2.43 season rate (1.87 3-yr) (47th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.27/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.