Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2678 GP	H235 GP	H143 GP	Prev 3183 GP · 3y
TOI	22.08	22.15	20.65	20.61	21.61
PP TOI	3.93	3.99	3.73	4.20	3.87
G	50	47	51	45	50
A	51	46	47	46	52
PTS	101	94	98	90	102
PPP	36	34	37	31	39
SOG	288	281	276	284	306
PIM	35	29	32	27	39
Hits	66	55	74	39	61
Blocks	33	28	24	32	36

Sample: 78 GP · 1,294 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

1Brady Tkachuk196

2Leon Draisaitl176

3Kirill Kaprizov151

4Jason Robertson142

5Jack Hughes135

6Matt Boldy130

7Jake Guentzel117

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

HITS

all5v5

Hits ran at a 74 pace in the second half after 39 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

PP ixG/60

PP ixG/60 finished the year 59% above where it started (2.90 in the first half, 4.62 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Top of the league

PP TOI

PP TOI sits in the 99th percentile league-wide (3.99).

Bottom of the league

Blks/60

Blks/60 sits in the 5th percentile league-wide (1.07).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Connor McDavidC · Edmonton Oilers92% match
shared: G, PPP, SOG, A
Jason RobertsonLW · Dallas Stars92% match
shared: PPP, G, SOG, A
Nikita KucherovRW · Tampa Bay Lightning89% match
shared: PPP, SOG, G, A
Leon DraisaitlC,LW · Edmonton Oilers88% match
shared: G, PPP, SOG, A

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Kirill Kaprizov is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · John Hynes (MIN)

Last year: John Hynes full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	22.08	22.15	21.61	+3%
5v5 TOI	16.46	16.60	16.22	+2%
PP TOI	3.93	3.99	3.87	+3%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 21 · 14

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 22.08: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 16.46: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 3.93: established top role held near 4.0 — the late dip (Q4 3.4) reads mostly as rest / season wear, not lost usage

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	7.32	7.32	7.80	-6%
G/60	0.88	0.83	1.03	-20%
iSH%	12.06	11.34	13.23	-14%
ixG/60	–	0.83	0.82	+2%
iCF/60	–	14.92	16.66	-10%
iSCF/60	–	8.20	9.01	-9%
iHDCF/60	–	3.52	3.82	-8%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 21 · 14

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 11.3% vs 13.2% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 0.83 (79th pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 12.1%, lifting the goal rate ~6%.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.19	10.16	10.22	-1%
IPP	67.31	63.36	72.15	-12%
1A/60	0.71	0.56	0.81	-31%
2A/60	0.45	0.46	0.41	+13%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 21 · 14

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 10.2%, IPP 63.4%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.93	3.99	3.87	+3%
PP iSH%	19.47	21.81	17.77	+23%
PP SOG/60	17.40	16.78	19.05	-12%
PP ixG/60	–	3.48	3.24	+8%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 21 · 14

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~3.9 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.10	0.93	1.47	-37%
Hits/60	2.82	2.32	2.47	-6%
Blks/60	1.22	1.07	1.45	-26%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 21 · 14

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 3.49/60 and 2nd-half 3.13 vs a 2.32 season rate (2.47 3-yr) (29th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.82/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBottom-of-league blocks (5th pct) — no meaningful floor here, don't draft for it.