Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2660 GP	H240 GP	H120 GP	Prev 3235 GP · 3y
TOI	17.80	16.96	15.53	16.45	18.69
PP TOI	3.55	3.25	3.19	3.29	3.65
G	▲34	30	31	32	35
A	▲48	51	48	51	39
PTS	▲82	81	79	83	74
PPP	26	27	27	29	26
SOG	322	302	281	351	349
PIM	121	97	101	85	134
Hits	240	221	214	229	267
Blocks	27	26	29	24	27

Sample: 60 GP · 750 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

1Brady Tkachuk196

2Leon Draisaitl176

3Kirill Kaprizov151

4Jason Robertson142

5Jack Hughes135

6Matt Boldy130

7Jake Guentzel117

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Offseason mover, Ottawa to Florida, and the power play is where the projection moves. Barkov is comfortably the best playmaker he has skated with, and he opens on a line with Barkov and Reinhart. His elite shot and hit volume travels, so the G/SOG/HITS floor holds. REVISED 2026-07-28: the earlier bet cut his PP minutes to 2.70 on the theory that Florida's loaded unit would leave him splitting PP1 and PP2. That put him below all 4 of his Ottawa seasons, and both outside reads lock him to the first unit instead, so the minutes go to 3.55. Even strength moves with it, 12.64 to 13.1, because stapling him to Barkov argues the whole workload was projected light. PPP and the PP slices of his goals and assists all fall out of those minutes rather than a blind multiplier. The linemate reads on his rates are unchanged.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

1A/60

1A/60 finished the year 87% above where it started (0.54 in the first half, 1.01 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Top of the league

ixG/60

ixG/60 sits in the 99th percentile league-wide (1.14).

Second-half fade

SOG/60

SOG/60 finished the year 23% below where it started (13.75 in the first half, 10.57 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

We project it up

PIM

all5v5

We’re projecting penalty minutes 25% above last season, 97 to 121.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Matthew TkachukRW · Florida Panthers86% match
shared: G, SOG, PIM, A
Andrei SvechnikovLW,RW · Carolina Hurricanes85% match
shared: PIM, Hits, PPP, G
David PastrnakRW · Boston Bruins81% match
shared: SOG, G, A, PPP
Brad MarchandLW,RW · Florida Panthers81% match
shared: PIM, G, PPP, SOG

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Brady Tkachuk is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Mitch MarnerC,LW,RW · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 2
fills: A, PPP
Robert ThomasC · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: A, PPP
Ivan DemidovRW · Montreal Canadienscovers 2
fills: A, PPP
Mats ZuccarelloRW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 2
fills: PPP, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Paul Maurice (FLA)

Last year (OTT, traded): Travis Green full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	17.80	16.96	18.69	-9%
5v5 TOI	13.10	12.52	13.93	-10%
PP TOI	3.55	3.25	3.65	-11%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 3 · 17 · 22 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 17.80: Headline ice time reconciled with the components: 14.15 at even strength, 3.55 on the power play, 0.07 on the penalty kill. Above last year's 16.96, below the 18.2 to 19.1 he logged in Ottawa, where he was the whole offense.
5v5 TOI → 13.10: Small step up from 12.64 toward the 13.5 to 14.6 he ran in Ottawa. He opens with Barkov and Reinhart, which is the best line of his career, and the 12.52 the engine anchored on came from a 60-game season on a worse team.
PP TOI → 3.55: PP1 lock, reversing the earlier shared-unit bet. Ottawa ran him 4.14, 3.44, 3.33 and 3.25 across 4 seasons, so the old 2.70 projected a career low on the trade. Phil's sheet and the outside read both put him on Florida's first unit, and net front on that unit is a job he gets touches from whether or not he carries the puck the way he did in Ottawa. 3.55 sits with Barkov's 3.63 and Matthew Tkachuk's 3.62, under Reinhart's 4.08.

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	11.67	11.67	12.23	-5%
G/60	0.92	0.88	0.99	-11%
iSH%	7.88	7.54	8.12	-7%
ixG/60	–	1.14	1.22	-7%
iCF/60	–	19.26	20.53	-6%
iSCF/60	–	10.71	11.40	-6%
iHDCF/60	–	4.63	5.54	-16%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 3 · 17 · 22 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindSet a very stable high shot-generation floor; ceiling is dangerous-volume, not luck. · Analytics research compilation

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 7.5% sits near the 8.1% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 1.14 (99th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 1.34 (1st half) to 1.04 (2nd).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.28	8.38	8.11	+3%
IPP	78.12	83.78	72.36	+16%
1A/60	0.76	0.88	0.75	+17%
2A/60	0.50	0.72	0.38	+87%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 3 · 17 · 22 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskIPP spiked to 83.8% vs 72.4% 3-yr — point participation this far above baseline rarely holds; assist share likely gives a little back.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.72 vs 3-yr 0.38) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.55	3.25	3.65	-11%
PP iSH%	12.42	9.81	14.30	-31%
PP SOG/60	16.18	15.70	18.12	-13%
PP ixG/60	–	3.64	3.62	+0%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 3 · 17 · 22 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskKeep PPP tempered in a crowded Florida top unit; do not project his Ottawa PP share. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

TailwindPP role projected up: 3.2→3.5 PP TOI/gp (PP1 lock, reversing the earlier shared-unit bet. Ottawa ran him 4.14, 3.44, 3.33 and 3.25 across 4 seasons, so the old 2.70 projected a career low on the trade. Phil's sheet and the outside read both put him on Florida's first unit, and net front on that unit is a job he gets touches from whether or not he carries the puck the way he did in Ottawa. 3.55 sits with Barkov's 3.63 and Matthew Tkachuk's 3.62, under Reinhart's 4.08.) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	5.32	4.87	5.87	-17%
Hits/60	12.60	12.22	13.16	-7%
Blks/60	1.40	1.52	1.23	+24%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 3 · 17 · 22 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindSet a very stable high shot-generation floor; ceiling is dangerous-volume, not luck. · Analytics research compilation

TailwindElite hits volume (90th pct) and role-stable — a bankable hits floor (12.60/60 projected).

ContextBlocks role-stable at 1.52/60 (17th pct league-wide) → 1.40 projected.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.24/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.