Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2631 GP	H231 GP	H125-26	Prev 3211 GP · 3y
TOI	18.51	18.30	17.22	–	19.21
PP TOI	3.62	3.58	3.58	–	4.01
G	32	34	34	–	34
A	59	56	55	–	64
PTS	91	90	90	–	99
PPP	32	34	34	–	35
SOG	267	233	233	–	295
PIM	93	95	95	–	103
Hits	105	77	77	–	118
Blocks	24	19	19	–	25

Sample: 31 GP · 412 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingRight wing · league-wide (of 273)

1Nikita Kucherov177

2David Pastrnak162

3Matthew Tkachuk155

4Tom Wilson133

5Matt Boldy130

6Mikko Rantanen126

7Martin Necas123

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)

TailwindBoost top-line stars' TOI-driven baseline; discount depth-center scoring. · Fantasy coaching primer

ContextMaintain elite talent baseline; apply a health/availability caveat. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

We project it up

HITS

all5v5

We’re projecting hits 36% above last season, 77 to 105.

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 43% above his 3-year rate last season (14.59 against 10.24).

Top of the league

PP TOI

PP TOI sits in the 96th percentile league-wide (3.58).

Above his 3-year rate

ixG/60

ixG/60 ran 27% above his 3-year rate last season (1.18 against 0.93).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

David PastrnakRW · Boston Bruins90% match
shared: PPP, A, SOG, G
Brady TkachukLW · Florida Panthers86% match
shared: G, SOG, PIM, A
Andrei SvechnikovLW,RW · Carolina Hurricanes85% match
shared: PIM, PPP, G, A
Brad MarchandLW,RW · Florida Panthers83% match
shared: PIM, G, PPP, SOG

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Matthew Tkachuk is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 1
fills: Hits
Jacob MelansonRW · Seattle Krakencovers 1
fills: Hits
Garnet HathawayRW · Florida Pantherscovers 1
fills: Hits
Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 1
fills: Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Paul Maurice (FLA)

Last year: Paul Maurice full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	18.51	18.30	19.21	-5%
5v5 TOI	13.38	13.30	13.61	-2%
PP TOI	3.62	3.58	4.01	-11%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 0 · 16 · 15

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 18.51: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 13.38: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 3.62: role tapered late (Q4 2.9 vs 3.6 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.99	6.99	8.98	-22%
G/60	0.90	1.02	0.92	+11%
iSH%	12.94	14.59	10.24	+43%
ixG/60	–	1.18	0.93	+27%
iCF/60	–	15.57	16.56	-6%
iSCF/60	–	9.02	8.98	+0%
iHDCF/60	–	6.40	4.53	+41%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 0 · 16 · 15

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 1.18 (99th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.93 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

RiskShot volume down 22% (5v5 SOG/60 6.99 vs 8.98) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.49	9.38	9.79	-4%
IPP	81.45	88.93	67.73	+31%
1A/60	0.96	0.87	1.09	-20%
2A/60	0.50	0.44	0.58	-25%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 0 · 16 · 15

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskIPP spiked to 88.9% vs 67.7% 3-yr — point participation this far above baseline rarely holds; assist share likely gives a little back.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 6.40 vs 4.53) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.62	3.58	4.01	-11%
PP iSH%	12.95	13.82	12.31	+12%
PP SOG/60	16.13	15.70	17.86	-12%
PP ixG/60	–	3.85	3.36	+15%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 0 · 16 · 15

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~3.6 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 3.85 vs 3.36) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	4.07	4.66	3.51	+33%
Hits/60	4.92	3.93	5.96	-34%
Blks/60	0.78	0.58	1.15	-49%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 0 · 16 · 15

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 3.93/60 (48th pct league-wide) → 4.92 projected.

RiskBottom-of-league blocks (0th pct) — no meaningful floor here, don't draft for it.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.29/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.