Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2672 GP	H231 GP	H141 GP	Prev 3188 GP · 3y
TOI	19.23	19.46	18.35	18.28	18.29
PP TOI	2.80	2.85	2.68	2.98	2.38
G	31	34	23	43	28
A	32	36	34	38	25
PTS	63	70	57	81	53
PPP	15	14	8	18	14
SOG	176	174	155	188	183
PIM	130	133	165	109	136
Hits	204	204	188	215	243
Blocks	72	61	74	52	74

Sample: 72 GP · 961 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingRight wing · league-wide (of 273)

1Nikita Kucherov177

2David Pastrnak162

3Matthew Tkachuk155

4Tom Wilson133

5Matt Boldy130

6Mikko Rantanen126

7Martin Necas123

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 83% above his 3-year rate last season (17.88 against 9.78).

Second-half fade

PPP

Power play points ran at a 8 pace in the second half after 18 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

all5v5

Goals ran at a 23 pace in the second half after 43 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 20% above his 3-year rate last season (2.85 against 2.38).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Vincent TrocheckC · Utah Mammoth84% match
shared: Blocks, Hits, PIM, G
Juraj SlafkovskyLW,RW · Montreal Canadiens81% match
shared: Blocks, Hits, PIM
Boone JennerC,LW · Washington Capitals80% match
shared: Blocks, Hits, PIM
Blake ColemanLW,RW · Minnesota Wild80% match
shared: Blocks, Hits, PIM, G

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Tom Wilson is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 3
fills: SOG, PPP, A
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Patrick KaneRW · Chicago Blackhawkscovers 3
fills: PPP, A, SOG
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Spencer Carbery (WSH)

Last year: Spencer Carbery full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	19.23	19.46	18.29	+6%
5v5 TOI	13.47	13.35	13.28	+1%
PP TOI	2.80	2.85	2.38	+20%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 13 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 19.23: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 13.47: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 2.80: established top role held near 2.8 — the late dip (Q4 2.3) reads mostly as rest / season wear, not lost usage

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.66	5.93	6.63	-11%
G/60	0.84	1.06	0.65	+63%
iSH%	14.80	17.88	9.78	+83%
ixG/60	–	0.71	0.71	-0%
iCF/60	–	11.73	13.05	-10%
iSCF/60	–	6.93	7.00	-1%
iHDCF/60	–	3.37	3.37	+0%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 13 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 17.9% vs a 9.8% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.71 (62nd pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 14.8% pulls the goal rate ~21% down.

RiskShot volume down 11% (5v5 SOG/60 5.93 vs 6.63) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.79 (1st half) to 0.63 (2nd).

RiskAge 32 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.12	11.08	9.01	+23%
IPP	64.39	71.08	56.63	+26%
1A/60	0.54	0.56	0.46	+23%
2A/60	0.47	0.69	0.34	+103%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 13 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskAssists projected DOWN: on-ice SH% 11.1% (3-yr 9.0%) AND IPP 71.1% (3-yr 56.6%) both ran hot — team finishing + participation luck stacked. Regressing both trims the assist rate ~12%.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.69 vs 3-yr 0.34) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.80	2.85	2.38	+20%
PP iSH%	20.11	17.52	21.99	-20%
PP SOG/60	11.35	11.70	12.18	-4%
PP ixG/60	–	3.43	2.93	+17%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 13 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~2.8 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 3.43 vs 2.93) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	5.78	5.80	5.79	+0%
Hits/60	10.05	10.11	11.83	-15%
Blks/60	2.78	2.43	3.10	-22%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 13 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 8.89/60 and 2nd-half 9.19 below the 10.11 season rate — projected DOWN to 10.05/60, weighting the recent decline over the 11.83 3-yr mark.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 2.88/60 and 2nd-half 3.02 vs a 2.43 season rate (3.10 3-yr) (47th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.78/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.31/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.