Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2664 GP	H224 GP	H140 GP	Prev 3244 GP · 3y
TOI	20.46	20.18	18.90	18.70	22.12
PP TOI	4.04	3.93	3.98	3.91	4.20
G	32	28	20	33	43
A	59	71	52	82	57
PTS	91	99	73	114	100
PPP	34	44	31	51	35
SOG	207	178	145	198	265
PIM	70	119	86	139	65
Hits	59	61	64	60	60
Blocks	39	38	37	39	43

Sample: 64 GP · 949 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingRight wing · league-wide (of 273)

3Matthew Tkachuk155

4Tom Wilson133

5Matt Boldy130

6Mikko Rantanen126

7Martin Necas123

8Tage Thompson121

9Wyatt Johnston118

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

PPP

Power play points ran at a 31 pace in the second half after 51 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

all5v5

Goals ran at a 20 pace in the second half after 33 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it down

PIM

all5v5

We’re projecting penalty minutes 41% below last season, 119 to 70.

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 42% above his 3-year rate last season (18.57 against 13.07).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Connor BedardC · Chicago Blackhawks87% match
shared: A, PPP, G, SOG
Jake GuentzelLW,RW · Tampa Bay Lightning85% match
shared: PPP, G, A, SOG
Sidney CrosbyC · Pittsburgh Penguins85% match
shared: A, G, PPP, SOG
Dylan LarkinC · Detroit Red Wings83% match
shared: PPP, G, SOG, A

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Mikko Rantanen is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jacob MelansonRW · Seattle Krakencovers 1
fills: Hits
Yakov TreninLW,RW · Minnesota Wildcovers 1
fills: Hits
Garnet HathawayRW · Florida Pantherscovers 1
fills: Hits
Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 1
fills: Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Glen Gulutzan (DAL)

Last year: Glen Gulutzan full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	20.46	20.18	22.12	-9%
5v5 TOI	15.06	14.83	16.53	-10%
PP TOI	4.04	3.93	4.20	-6%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 14 · 10

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 20.46: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 15.06: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 4.04: holds last year's role

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.99	5.44	7.72	-30%
G/60	0.77	1.01	1.01	+0%
iSH%	15.38	18.57	13.07	+42%
ixG/60	–	0.65	0.80	-19%
iCF/60	–	10.75	14.53	-26%
iSCF/60	–	7.65	8.84	-13%
iHDCF/60	–	3.60	3.76	-4%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 14 · 10

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 18.6% vs a 13.1% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.65 (54th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 15.4% pulls the goal rate ~24% down.

RiskShot volume down 30% (5v5 SOG/60 5.44 vs 7.72) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.73 (1st half) to 0.49 (2nd).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.76	11.77	9.84	+20%
IPP	72.44	80.41	65.21	+23%
1A/60	0.81	0.82	0.73	+13%
2A/60	0.45	0.51	0.43	+18%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 14 · 10

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskAssists projected DOWN: on-ice SH% 11.8% (3-yr 9.8%) AND IPP 80.4% (3-yr 65.2%) both ran hot — team finishing + participation luck stacked. Regressing both trims the assist rate ~9%.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	4.04	3.93	4.20	-6%
PP iSH%	17.34	13.65	18.38	-26%
PP SOG/60	10.29	10.48	12.11	-13%
PP ixG/60	–	1.66	1.88	-12%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 14 · 10

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~4.0 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	3.17	4.43	2.56	+73%
Hits/60	2.68	2.78	2.32	+20%
Blks/60	1.52	1.58	1.78	-11%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 14 · 10

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 3.68/60 and 2nd-half 2.98 vs a 2.78 season rate (2.32 3-yr) (35th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.68/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 0.82/60 and 2nd-half 1.41 below the 1.58 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.52/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.78 3-yr mark.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.13/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.