Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2682 GP	H241 GP	H141 GP	Prev 3246 GP · 3y
TOI	20.45	20.12	18.98	18.55	17.14
PP TOI	3.74	3.53	3.64	3.41	2.16
G	40	45	50	40	30
A	40	41	30	52	29
PTS	80	86	80	92	59
PPP	34	42	38	46	14
SOG	226	206	210	202	193
PIM	41	32	44	20	24
Hits	77	56	85	27	40
Blocks	51	55	53	57	39

Sample: 82 GP · 1,207 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

7Tage Thompson121

8Connor Bedard121

9Jack Eichel120

10Wyatt Johnston118

11Nick Suzuki114

12Aleksander Barkov113

13Dylan Larkin107

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 121% above where it started (8.93 in the first half, 19.75 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Above his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 63% above his 3-year rate last season (3.53 against 2.16).

Second-half fade

1A/60

1A/60 finished the year 67% below where it started (0.92 in the first half, 0.30 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

We project it up

HITS

all5v5

We’re projecting hits 38% above last season, 56 to 77.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Nico HischierC · New Jersey Devils90% match
shared: G, PPP, Blocks, SOG
Brock NelsonC · Colorado Avalanche88% match
shared: G, Blocks, PPP, SOG
Alex DeBrincatLW · Detroit Red Wings86% match
shared: G, PPP, SOG, A
Bryan RustRW · Pittsburgh Penguins85% match
shared: G, Blocks, PPP, SOG

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Wyatt Johnston is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Glen Gulutzan (DAL)

Last year: Glen Gulutzan full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	20.45	20.12	17.14	+17%
5v5 TOI	15.05	14.73	13.16	+12%
PP TOI	3.74	3.53	2.16	+63%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 22 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 20.45: holds last year's role; age 23 riser — small growth bias
5v5 TOI → 15.05: holds last year's role; age 23 riser — small growth bias
PP TOI → 3.74: same coach (Glen Gulutzan) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 3.7, Q4 4.0) over the full-year 3.5; age 23 riser — small growth bias

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.78	5.61	7.95	-29%
G/60	0.82	0.79	1.13	-30%
iSH%	14.15	14.08	14.20	-1%
ixG/60	–	0.85	0.98	-13%
iCF/60	–	11.97	14.77	-19%
iSCF/60	–	8.44	10.00	-16%
iHDCF/60	–	3.92	4.78	-18%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 22 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 14.1% sits near the 14.2% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.85 (82nd pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 29% (5v5 SOG/60 5.61 vs 7.95) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.76→0.93 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

TailwindAge 23 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.19	10.36	9.99	+4%
IPP	69.25	66.79	72.25	-8%
1A/60	0.66	0.60	0.72	-17%
2A/60	0.38	0.40	0.32	+26%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 22 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 10.4%, IPP 66.8%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.74	3.53	2.16	+63%
PP iSH%	22.79	32.52	15.75	+106%
PP SOG/60	17.22	17.22	12.21	+41%
PP ixG/60	–	3.88	2.48	+57%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 22 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindRaise Johnston PPP baseline toward the high-30s. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

ContextPP role steady at ~3.7 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 3.88 vs 2.48) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.61	1.19	1.08	+10%
Hits/60	3.48	2.58	1.99	+30%
Blks/60	2.10	2.33	1.80	+30%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 22 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 4.47/60 and 2nd-half 4.08 vs a 2.58 season rate (1.99 3-yr) (32nd pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 3.48/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.70/60 and 2nd-half 2.14 below the 2.33 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.10/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.80 3-yr mark.