Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2682 GP	H241 GP	H141 GP	Prev 3246 GP · 3y
TOI	20.82	20.82	19.05	18.84	20.81
PP TOI	3.75	3.54	3.68	3.40	3.48
G	32	29	28	30	30
A	64	72	87	57	48
PTS	96	101	115	87	77
PPP	36	43	44	42	25
SOG	185	183	184	182	173
PIM	27	28	40	16	26
Hits	60	62	62	62	61
Blocks	61	62	57	67	56

Sample: 82 GP · 1,203 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

8Connor Bedard121

9Jack Eichel120

10Wyatt Johnston118

11Nick Suzuki114

12Aleksander Barkov113

13Dylan Larkin107

14J.T. Miller102

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)

TailwindHold an elite top-line center line; stable high-end value. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey (Blake Cramer)

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 110% above where it started (7.21 in the first half, 15.14 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

1A/60

1A/60 finished the year 66% above where it started (0.90 in the first half, 1.50 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Above his 3-year rate

PP ixG/60

PP ixG/60 ran 70% above his 3-year rate last season (2.14 against 1.26).

Top of the league

PP TOI

PP TOI sits in the 96th percentile league-wide (3.54).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Mark StoneRW · Vegas Golden Knights89% match
shared: PPP, A, Blocks, G
Aleksander BarkovC · Florida Panthers87% match
shared: PPP, A, Blocks
Mika ZibanejadC,RW · New York Rangers87% match
shared: PPP, A, Blocks, G
Mitch MarnerC,LW,RW · Vegas Golden Knights84% match
shared: A, PPP, Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Nick Suzuki is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Liam O'BrienLW · Utah Mammothcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Martin St. Louis (MTL)

Last year: Martin St. Louis full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	20.82	20.82	20.81	+0%
5v5 TOI	14.72	14.67	14.81	-1%
PP TOI	3.75	3.54	3.48	+2%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 20

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 20.82: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 14.72: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 3.75: same coach (Martin St. Louis) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 3.7, Q4 3.8) over the full-year 3.5; Raise baseline toward 80 points with a strong hits floor.

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.39	5.39	5.42	-1%
G/60	0.66	0.60	0.77	-22%
iSH%	12.32	11.13	14.26	-22%
ixG/60	–	0.65	0.58	+13%
iCF/60	–	11.67	10.26	+14%
iSCF/60	–	6.18	5.77	+7%
iHDCF/60	–	2.39	2.37	+1%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 20

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 11.1% vs 14.3% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 0.65 (56th pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 12.3%, lifting the goal rate ~11%.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.73 (1st half) to 0.56 (2nd) even though shot volume held — a chance-quality dip, not a volume one.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	12.03	12.44	10.91	+14%
IPP	62.81	62.40	64.47	-3%
1A/60	1.00	1.20	0.69	+74%
2A/60	0.57	0.45	0.59	-24%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 20

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 12.4% vs a 10.9% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 11.67 vs 10.26) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.75	3.54	3.48	+2%
PP iSH%	21.43	23.38	20.01	+17%
PP SOG/60	9.45	9.71	8.42	+15%
PP ixG/60	–	2.14	1.26	+70%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 20

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindRaise baseline toward 80 points with a strong hits floor. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

ContextPP role steady at ~3.7 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 2.14 vs 1.26) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.79	0.60	1.04	-42%
Hits/60	2.76	2.84	2.64	+8%
Blks/60	2.32	2.44	2.19	+11%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 20

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindRaise baseline toward 80 points with a strong hits floor. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

ContextHits role-stable at 2.84/60 (36th pct league-wide) → 2.76 projected.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 2.02/60 and 2nd-half 2.20 below the 2.44 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.32/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.19 3-yr mark.