Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2660 GP	H237 GP	H123 GP	Prev 3165 GP · 3y
TOI	19.04	19.21	18.23	17.64	19.34
PP TOI	3.32	3.46	3.36	3.61	3.02
G	28	38	36	42	26
A	54	61	55	72	53
PTS	82	100	91	114	78
PPP	29	37	29	50	24
SOG	170	176	159	204	179
PIM	15	12	20	0	23
Hits	45	42	44	40	49
Blocks	57	64	74	49	51

Sample: 60 GP · 803 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingRight wing · league-wide (of 273)

27Pavel Dorofeyev79

28Kevin Fiala79

29Alex Ovechkin78

30Mark Stone75

31Beckett Sennecke74

32Kirill Marchenko73

33Will Cuylle72

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 103% above where it started (11.10 in the first half, 22.52 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Above his 3-year rate

PP ixG/60

PP ixG/60 ran 99% above his 3-year rate last season (3.69 against 1.85).

Second-half surge

Blks/60

Blks/60 finished the year 71% above where it started (1.77 in the first half, 3.04 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

We project it down

all5v5

We’re projecting goals 26% below last season, 38 to 28.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Nick SuzukiC · Montreal Canadiens89% match
shared: PPP, A, Blocks, G
Mitch MarnerC,LW,RW · Vegas Golden Knights84% match
shared: A, PPP, Blocks
Nico HischierC · New Jersey Devils83% match
shared: Blocks, G, PPP, A
Mika ZibanejadC,RW · New York Rangers83% match
shared: PPP, A, Blocks, G

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Mark Stone is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Liam O'BrienLW · Utah Mammothcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Ryan Craig (VGK) new voice

Last year: Bruce Cassidy Q1-Q4 · fired Mar 29 → John Tortorella final 8 games · Q4 — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	19.04	19.21	19.34	-1%
5v5 TOI	13.34	13.38	13.97	-4%
PP TOI	3.32	3.46	3.02	+14%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 6 · 17 · 20 · 17

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 19.04: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 13.34: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 3.32: holds last year's role

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.58	6.05	6.69	-10%
G/60	0.80	1.05	0.81	+30%
iSH%	14.31	17.36	12.10	+43%
ixG/60	–	0.80	0.82	-2%
iCF/60	–	11.73	11.82	-1%
iSCF/60	–	7.40	8.02	-8%
iHDCF/60	–	3.89	4.06	-4%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 6 · 17 · 20 · 17

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 17.4% vs a 12.1% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.80 (76th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 14.3% pulls the goal rate ~24% down.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 1.02 (1st half) to 0.70 (2nd).

RiskAge 34 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	11.00	12.18	9.85	+24%
IPP	67.30	66.04	69.34	-5%
1A/60	0.86	0.90	0.78	+15%
2A/60	0.53	0.52	0.60	-13%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 6 · 17 · 20 · 17

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 12.2% vs a 9.9% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.32	3.46	3.02	+14%
PP iSH%	19.47	24.28	15.99	+52%
PP SOG/60	10.36	10.71	9.02	+19%
PP ixG/60	–	3.69	1.85	+99%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 6 · 17 · 20 · 17

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~3.3 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 3.69 vs 1.85) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.66	0.67	0.73	-8%
Hits/60	2.17	2.09	2.21	-5%
Blks/60	2.45	2.62	2.06	+27%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 6 · 17 · 20 · 17

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 3.40/60 and 2nd-half 2.24 vs a 2.09 season rate (2.21 3-yr) (25th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.17/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 2.62/60 and 2nd-half 3.04 vs a 2.62 season rate (2.06 3-yr) (52nd pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.45/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.07/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.