Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2682 GP	H243 GP	H139 GP	Prev 3129 GP · 2y
TOI	17.32	17.60	16.76	16.81	15.34
PP TOI	3.30	3.44	3.23	3.68	1.73
G	▲41	37	40	34	31
A	▲32	27	27	27	18
PTS	▲73	64	67	61	48
PPP	24	30	27	34	11
SOG	244	229	231	226	223
PIM	28	24	27	21	27
Hits	23	27	18	37	29
Blocks	35	28	20	37	38

Sample: 82 GP · 1,093 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

21Artemi Panarin85

22Steven Stamkos81

23Cole Caufield80

24Pavel Dorofeyev79

25Kevin Fiala79

26Tomas Hertl78

27Alex Ovechkin78

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Baseline line is his 2025-26 Vegas season (already PP1 at 3.44 PP TOI). No PP-TOI bet: 'primary PP1 shooter' in NYR is a lateral role, not a minutes increase, so it stays baked in the baseline rather than double-counting via a deploy bump. Volume shooter; 40G/70pt ceiling, held a touch under.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Above his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 99% above his 3-year rate last season (3.44 against 1.73).

Second-half fade

HITS

all5v5

Hits ran at a 18 pace in the second half after 37 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

Blks/60

Blks/60 finished the year 55% below where it started (2.00 in the first half, 0.90 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Above his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 53% above his 3-year rate last season (0.60 against 0.39).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Alex DeBrincatLW · Detroit Red Wings83% match
shared: G, SOG, PPP
Cutter GauthierLW,RW · Anaheim Ducks83% match
shared: G, SOG
Jordan KyrouRW · Washington Capitals82% match
shared: SOG, G, PPP
Cole CaufieldLW · Montreal Canadiens81% match
shared: G, SOG, PPP

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Pavel Dorofeyev is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Mike Sullivan (NYR)

Last year (VGK, traded): Bruce Cassidy Q1-Q4 · fired Mar 29 → John Tortorella final 8 games · Q4 — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	17.32	17.60	15.34	+15%
5v5 TOI	13.35	13.34	13.14	+2%
PP TOI	3.30	3.44	1.73	+99%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 25 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 17.32: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 13.35: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 3.30: holds last year's role

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	7.75	7.63	9.80	-22%
G/60	0.90	0.82	1.20	-32%
iSH%	11.64	10.75	12.28	-12%
ixG/60	–	0.86	1.00	-14%
iCF/60	–	16.46	17.14	-4%
iSCF/60	–	9.27	9.88	-6%
iHDCF/60	–	3.95	4.18	-5%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 25 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindStrong goal-scoring carryover built on volume and location; raise G/SOG/PPP baseline. · Analytics research compilation

TailwindBoost G/SOG to a locked-in top-line/PP1 sniper line. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 10.7% sits near the 12.3% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.86 (83rd pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 22% (5v5 SOG/60 7.63 vs 9.80) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.35	9.44	9.05	+4%
IPP	68.37	68.22	68.83	-1%
1A/60	0.50	0.60	0.39	+53%
2A/60	0.34	0.33	0.35	-7%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 25 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 9.4%, IPP 68.2%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.30	3.44	1.73	+99%
PP iSH%	20.31	25.63	20.31	+26%
PP SOG/60	16.26	16.58	17.21	-4%
PP ixG/60	–	2.84	2.48	+14%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 25 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindStrong goal-scoring carryover built on volume and location; raise G/SOG/PPP baseline. · Analytics research compilation

ContextPP role steady at ~3.3 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 2.84 vs 2.48) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.35	1.21	1.41	-14%
Hits/60	1.24	1.43	1.62	-12%
Blks/60	1.35	1.43	2.09	-32%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 25 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 0.75/60 and 2nd-half 0.90 below the 1.43 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.24/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.62 3-yr mark.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 0.75/60 and 2nd-half 0.90 below the 1.43 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.35/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.09 3-yr mark.