Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2682 GP	H240 GP	H142 GP	Prev 3217 GP · 3y
TOI	17.17	17.45	16.22	16.98	19.10
PP TOI	4.42	4.49	4.69	4.30	4.49
G	34	32	33	31	44
A	31	32	26	38	36
PTS	65	64	58	69	80
PPP	22	19	20	18	28
SOG	237	243	268	219	303
PIM	23	26	33	20	31
Hits	131	134	129	139	175
Blocks	17	16	18	14	22

Sample: 82 GP · 991 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

24Pavel Dorofeyev79

25Kevin Fiala79

26Tomas Hertl78

27Alex Ovechkin78

28Will Cuylle72

29Drake Batherson72

30Bobby McMann71

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

1A/60

1A/60 finished the year 67% below where it started (1.14 in the first half, 0.38 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half fade

all5v5

Assists ran at a 26 pace in the second half after 38 in the first, per 82 games.

Top of the league

PP TOI

PP TOI sits in the 99th percentile league-wide (4.49).

Top of the league

ixG/60

ixG/60 sits in the 97th percentile league-wide (1.06).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Zach HymanRW · Edmonton Oilers83% match
shared: G, SOG, PPP
John TavaresC · Toronto Maple Leafs82% match
shared: G, SOG, PPP, Hits
Cole CaufieldLW · Montreal Canadiens80% match
shared: G, SOG, PPP
Cutter GauthierLW,RW · Anaheim Ducks80% match
shared: G, SOG

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Alex Ovechkin is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Pierre-Luc DuboisC · Washington Capitalscovers 2
fills: PIM, A
Jamie BennLW · Dallas Starscovers 2
fills: PIM, A
Trevor ZegrasC,LW · Philadelphia Flyerscovers 2
fills: PIM, A
Evgeni MalkinC,LW · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 2
fills: A, PIM

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Spencer Carbery (WSH)

Last year: Spencer Carbery full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	17.17	17.45	19.10	-9%
5v5 TOI	11.61	12.09	13.68	-12%
PP TOI	4.42	4.49	4.49	+0%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 22 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 17.17: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 11.61: role tapered late (Q4 11.2 vs 12.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish
PP TOI → 4.42: holds last year's role

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	8.15	8.29	9.44	-12%
G/60	1.06	1.15	1.11	+4%
iSH%	13.07	13.87	11.76	+18%
ixG/60	–	1.06	0.93	+14%
iCF/60	–	19.25	19.33	-0%
iSCF/60	–	10.23	10.03	+2%
iHDCF/60	–	4.90	4.09	+20%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 22 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 1.06 (97th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.93 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

RiskShot volume down 12% (5v5 SOG/60 8.29 vs 9.44) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

RiskAge 40 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.72	11.15	9.70	+15%
IPP	72.81	71.95	74.90	-4%
1A/60	0.78	0.79	0.69	+15%
2A/60	0.31	0.24	0.36	-34%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 22 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 11.1%, IPP 71.9%).

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 4.90 vs 4.09) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	4.42	4.49	4.49	+0%
PP iSH%	11.04	5.78	14.85	-61%
PP SOG/60	14.96	14.01	17.01	-18%
PP ixG/60	–	1.72	1.74	-1%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 22 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~4.4 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP finishing ran cold (5.8% vs 14.8%) over steady PP chances — PP goals should rebound.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.42	1.57	1.38	+14%
Hits/60	7.67	7.57	8.84	-14%
Blks/60	0.92	0.85	0.99	-14%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 22 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 7.57/60 (78th pct league-wide) → 7.67 projected.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 0.89/60 and 2nd-half 1.02 vs a 0.85 season rate (0.99 3-yr) (2nd pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 0.92/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.